BEST LINES: Pinnacle +184 Bet365 +170 SportsInteraction +195 5DIMES +180

Posted at 12:25 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. Things seem to be back to normal in Washington, as the Caps have won three of their last four games with only loss over that span being a 2-1 setback in Calgary. The Caps are now 7-6-1 after a slow start but contrary to what the results suggest, things are not back to normal. Not even close. In its last home game, Washington beat the Islanders 4-3 but got outshot 38-19. That was a luck-driven result. In Boston in their last game, the Caps won 3-2 but once again were the second best team on the ice. The Caps have been out-chanced (high danger scoring chances) by an incredible combined count of 34-18 over its last three games. The Caps Corsi For % numbers over that time was pitifully low too, just as they have been all year.  The Caps xGA average ranks near the bottom of the league and in the same range as teams like Detroit, the Rangers and Buffalo. This is not the same team that has dominated the regular season for years. This edition of the Caps is a fraction of what those teams were in all areas except goaltending. On their best day, the Caps are now beatable and we’ll continue to fade them when they’re overpriced like they are here.

Trust us when we suggest that the Coyotes and Caps could just as easily own each other’s record. In other words, the Coyotes could be a game over .500 and the Caps could be nine games under because of luck, be it poor or fortunate. There is such a fine line between winning and losing in this game that the above could apply to almost all teams. The Devils are not playing well enough to be 9-3. The Sens have some of the worst puck possession numbers in the NHL and they’re 6-3-5 after 14 games when they could easily be or should be more in the neighborhood of 2-12. We could run through the entire 31 teams and discuss some of their luck-driven results, which brings us to Arizona. The Coyotes are not dominating play but they are not the worst team in the league either. They have taken two minor penalties or less in eight of its past 10 games, which shows a strong commitment to discipline or staying out of the box. They rank ahead of the Caps in Corsi For %, and amazingly enough, the ‘Yotes have scored the first goal more times than any team in the NHL. The Coyotes have scored first in 11 of their 15 games, which is not conducive to losing so many games. Arizona is not playing poorly. It is simply not getting the bounces or strong goaltending. The best news however, is that the market will continue to be heavily influenced by results, which will continue to provide us with opportunities like this.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks