BEST LINES: Pinnacle +107 Bet365 +105 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +105

Posted at 2:00 PM EST.

8:00 PM EST. The Wild are 4-4-2 and above the surface, statistically speaking, they are better than the Canadiens in every way. Minnesota has scored more goals per game than Montreal, has allowed less goals per game, has a better power-play and penalty kill (percentage wise) and its goaltenders have better numbers than Montreal’s duo. Yes indeed, on the surface, the Wild look like a pretty decent play here but let’s discuss win expectation and the real story of these two teams in the early going.

Won/loss records in hockey are very misleading. In that regard, Montreal’s 4-7-1 record might be the most misleading in the game. In terms of win expectation in this one game, Montreal’s is much higher than Minnesota’s because Montreal dominates puck possession while the Wild get dominated. Too much emphasis is put on results because at the end of the game the only thing that matters is who won and who lost. We, on the other hand, try to take advantage of market perceptions that are incorrect and that applies here. Minnesota is spending more time in its own end more than every other team but three.

Montreal ranks third in the NHL in Corsi for percentage while the Wild rank 28th out of 31 teams. That’s a massive difference in puck possession numbers in the offensive end. That has resulted in Montreal’s goals for per 60 minutes to be much higher than Minnesota’s. In four of its last five games, Montreal fired away 51 shots on Anaheim, 40 on the Kings, 43 on the Rangers and 37 on Florida. In its other game over that span, the Habs went off for eight goals on Ottawa. One cannot remove in-game variance from any game or sport but what we can do is predict which team is very likely going to outplay the other and create more chances. In that regard, the numbers beneath the hood strongly suggest Montreal will win those battles. The Habs are hungry, they’re playing some great hockey without the results but confidence is rising and frustration is declining after consecutive victories over the Rags and Sens in which they scored 13 goals combined.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks