BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +292 Bet365 -1½ +250 SportsInteraction -1 +155  5DIMES -1½ +280

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +108 Bet365 +100 SportsInteraction +115 5DIMES +100

Posted at 1:30 PM EST 

Before we begin and until further notice, we’re going to be splitting up our NHL underdogs into two bets. We’re playing them straight up for 1 unit and we’ll be playing them on the reverse puck line (-1½) for 1 unit, thus making up our traditional 2 unit bet. The thinking is that if the dog loses, we lose our bet anyway. If the game goes into OT, which is a coin-toss anyway, we lose our -1½ bet but have a chance to profit a pork-chop if we happen to get lucky and win it in the extra time. If our team is winning by a goal, we know for sure we’ll get a crack at an empty netter and there is also a good chance that if our team is ahead, it might be by more than one goal anyway. Therefore, our bet for this game and every dog we play will be -1½ for 1 unit and straight up for one unit.

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7:35 PM EST. OT included. One must embrace the fact that hockey is the most luck driven sport of them all in terms of final results. We have mentioned this in the past and will continue to pound that point home and try to take advantage of it. This game features two teams on opposite sides of the luck spectrum, as Montreal continues to dominate and lose while the Sens continue to get dominated and win. The early season results on both these team is in line for a correction and if Carey Price finds his footing, Montreal figures to go on a serious run.

Montreal is the third ranked possession team. They are constantly buzzing around in the opponents end but can’t seem to get those timely goals or they run into a hot goaltender. By contrast, the Senators are dead last in the NHL in puck possession time in the opponents end. In terms of PDO (save % + shooting %), a luck based metric, Montreal is dead last in the league, ranking 31st while the Sens PDO ranks fifth best/luckiest. It is a rare night when Montreal gats outplayed or out-worked and it’s also a rare night when the Senators outplay their opponent.

On Saturday night, Montreal jumped out to a 3-0 lead over the Rangers and outshot New York, 43-26 but the game ended 5-4. It wasn’t that close but Carey Price was shaky again. Also on Saturday, Vegas beat Colorado, 7-0. The Golden Knights had 21 shots on net and scored seven times but had one of the worst Corsi figures of the year. Colorado had 32 shots on net and didn’t score. These two examples of misleading results are not uncommon. We could go through the entire schedule every year and show you examples of it every night. Montreal is 0-5 against top-10 teams and 0-7 against top-16 teams. Does anyone understand how preposterous that truly is? It is a rare night when Montreal gets outplayed or out-worked and it’s also a rare night when the Senators outplay their opponent. Does that mean Montreal will win here? Absolutely not but we’re going with the best of it and that’s all we can ask.

The bets are as follows:

Montreal -1½ +292 for 1 unit

Montreal +108 for 1 units

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