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Posted on May 25 Before the3 Eastern Conference Game 7 final.  

Obviously the Penguins have to get by the Senators tonight but we have the Sens +255 to win that series so we can live with an Ottawa Game 7 victory. Should that come to pass, we’ll rip up this ticket but cash just over 5 units so it’ll all work out fine. However, the more likely scenario is that we rip up our Sens ticket, which would then give us a nice bet in the Finals on the Penguins.

Pittsburgh will likely be a very small favorite over the Preds in the finals so there is some decent value here with that bet but first things first. Pittsburgh is very likely headed to the finals for several reasons. First, they have utterly destroyed the Senators in the past two games in terms of time of possession and time spent in the offensive end. Only the play of Craig Anderson prevented the Senators from being eliminated last game. The Penguins are getting stronger with each passing game and they also play a more aggressive style with Matt Murray in goal because they trust him so much more than they trusted Marc Andre Fleury. Lastly, an Ottawa/Nashville final is Gary Bettman’s worse nightmare because it’s a network and ratings nightmare. We would never EVER suggest the game is fixed but nothing needs to be said. In other words, this game is in Pittsburgh and if you think the Sens didn’t get a fair shake in Game 6 in terms of calls, things are going to get worse here. If the game is close, Ottawa will not get any calls in their favor and likely plenty against.

Assuming the Pens move on, we’re going to trust them to run over the Predators. You see, Pittsburgh is a composed, disciplined, experienced and extremely talented team that is going to teach the Predators a lesson, just like they did the Sharks in last year’s Cup finals.

The region that surrounds the Predators is in a hockey frenzy right now. It’s a circus atmosphere that is creating way too much hype on this beatable team but the worst part for Nashville is that the players are getting caught up in it too. With almost a week off after they luckily eliminated the Ducks, the players on Nashville have become local celebrities to a high degree and they’re eating it up. These Preds’ players (and the team itself) have become bigger than life and more popular than Garth Brooks and/or Keith Urban in that region. The players are all smiling, laughing it up, partying with the crowds in the street and it’s going to bite them where the sun don’t shine. This is way too much hype on a team whose focus is being misdirected. The Preds are like that first-time Super Bowl team during “Super Bowl week”. They are being hounded by the media. There are parties everywhere and each player on Nashville is being hounded by friends and family that want to come down to that region and join in on the festivities. They also want tickets. The Super Bowl is lined with teams that got caught up in the hype and then got their asses handed to them in the actual game because of a lack of focus, which is precisely the sense we’re getting from the Preds. 

Aside from that, Nashville was absolutely dominated by Anaheim in Game 5 and Game 6 and they were the second best team on the ice in five of the six games overall. Now take away Ryan Johansen and perhaps another center in Mike Fisher and it leaves a gaping hole up in the middle for the Preds. Pittsburgh will exploit that big time. When you look at the progressively better offensive-zone time, the possession time, the shots they had, the traffic in front and the amount of scoring chances that Anaheim had against Nashville, it’s hard to think or trust that it’s not going to get worse against Pittsburgh. The puck simply didn’t go in the net for the Ducks but don’t expect that to last against the sharp-shooting Penguins.

Last year in the Stanley Cup Finals, Pittsburgh wiped the ice with a focused San Jose team that looked so good the entire playoffs prior to getting their asses whooped. We’re strongly suggesting that Nashville is going to take just as bad or more of an ass-kicking and by the time it’s over, the Preds will be shaking in their blue suede skates. Invest with confidence. 

We have Ottawa in series @ +255 which affords us the luxury of putting three units down here. If you do not have Ottawa in series, the recommendation is still to bet Pittsburgh now for your traditional wager.  

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