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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

8:10 PM EST. Pittsburgh appears to be gassed at times. They are not peaking and do not have the same energy as they had last year. They are getting by on talent and determination but their legs have not been there for several stretches during these playoffs. Meanwhile, the Preds are energized and they’re feeding off their frenzied fans. It would not surprise us one bit if Nashville won Game 2 and tied this series up. It wouldn’t surprise anyone. It wouldn’t surprise us if Loretta Lynn sang the National Anthem tonight alongside the ghost of Johnny Cash. The atmosphere is electric to be sure with Gary Bettman being the only thing that looks out of place at that arena. It’s hard not to get caught up in it but Pittsburgh is resilient and always seem to make the right adjustments. The Pens have the superior goaltending too and that’s the basis for this choice.

It’s not rocket science. The Pens won Game 1 because Pekka Rinne was awful. The Pens won Game 2 because Pekka Rinne was awful and even got yanked. The Predators won Game 3 because Pekka Rinne had a good game and because the Predators scored a spirit crushing goal with 22 seconds left in the second period to take a 3-1 lead into the third. When a team dominates in basketball, they win. When a team dominates in football, they win. When a pitcher dominates in baseball, he and his team win. In hockey, it’s not like that. When a team dominates in hockey, they lose more often than in any sport and it’s not even close because goaltending is the number one deciding factor in the outcome of games. One could go through every series over the past 20 years or however long you want to and come up with the same conclusion.

Why didn’t Winnipeg, Dallas or Carolina make the playoffs this year? Why didn’t Calgary make the playoffs last year? In the first two games of this series, Matt Murray stopped 60 of 64 shots for a .938 save percentage, while Pekka Rinne only stopped 28 of 36 shots for a .778 save percentage. That’s a 160 point difference in save percentage so again, it’s not rocket science as to why Pittsburgh won. The media (and many experts) insist that Pekka Rinne is a top-notch goaltender but that’s laughable. He’s not. He’s huge and he’s experienced but he’s not reliable and he’s constantly fighting the puck. Great goaltenders don’t get pulled. Rinne has been yanked often over the past two years. Great goaltenders don’t have stretches of 10 games in which their save percentage is under .880 in at least half of them. Rinne has had seven such stretches over the past two years. Every goaltender in the NHL has great games. Kari Lehtonen of the Stars had several this year but he was also pulled numerous times and is considered to be one of the weakest goaltenders in the league. The same goes for guys like Antti Niemi, Michael Hutchinson, Cam Ward, Connor Hellebuyck, Steve Mason and others. Great goaltenders don’t allow soft goals frequently. Weak goaltenders allow soft goals constantly. Pekka Rinne is the latter and that’s why the Penguins are worthy of a bet. It’s not rocket science.

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