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Posted on April 12 Before Game 1. 

Series wager. If you’ve been listening to sports radio or the talking heads on the TV networks, there seems to be little reason to play this Eastern Conference Final at all. These are the same people that all said Washington and Chicago will be meeting in the Stanley Cup Final. They simply can’t wrap their heads around a lower seed beating a higher seed and certainly can’t wrap their heads around the champs losing to the last standing Canadian team that was predicted to be the first Canadian team knocked out of the tournament.

When healthy, Pittsburgh is the best team in the NHL. When fully loaded, the Pens have speed, defense, goaltending, role players, star power and intangibles. They’re well coached and Sidney Crosby does things offensively that other great players haven’t even thought of yet. If you think Crosby is overrated, you couldn’t be more wrong about anything. Back in February, the NHL revealed the 100 greatest players of all time and we promise you that Evgeni Malkin was superior to at least 20 of them. That he was not included on that list is remarkable. Yes indeed folks, the Penguins are the champs and deserved to be last year when they were healthy and steamrolled through four grueling rounds while making both the Rangers and Sharks look like minor league clubs. However, these are not the same Penguins that rolled through the competition on their way to the Cup last season.

Despite injuries to key players like Kris Letang, Trevor Daley and of course Sidney Crosby, the Penguins have persevered despite being outplayed nearly every single night of these playoffs. The Pens have allowed over 35 shots per game in the post-season, which is the most of any squad that made it to the dance. Pittsburgh might be loaded with star forwards but they have also been the beneficiary of suspect opposition goaltending while Marc-Andre Fleury has bailed out their nonexistent defence time and time again. In Games 5 and 6 against the Capitals, the chinks in Fleury’s armour began to show, as he gave up nine goals on 58 shots in those two games for a combined save percentage of .845. He had a rough patch in the Blue Jackets series as well. There’s no steady sailing with MAF, as he’s either been out of this world or godawful. Let’s not forget that Fleury was replaced by a rookie last season and lost his starting job. The point is that he can lose it at any time.

Under the hood, it does not look good for the Pens either. Pittsburgh is dead last of all the playoff teams in 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage at 41.99 while scoring on nearly 10 percent (9.87) of their shots taken 5-on-5. During the regular season, the Penguins were a top five team in that stat category with a 8.58 shooting percentage. Pittsburgh’s shooting percentage in the playoffs has been off the charts, thus regression is very likely. Meanwhile, the Senators held a puck possession edge on Boston in the first round and Boston was the NHL’s top possession team going during the regular season. They also created more scoring chances against New York in round two and held a significant Corsi For edge in that series as well.

Both Sergei Bobrovsky and Braden Holtby were uncharacteristically off their games by a wide margin when facing the Pens in the first and second rounds respectively. Holtby looked nervous and played nervous while Bobrovsky looked worse than Antti Niemi. Each and every night of these playoffs, the Penguins were the second best team on the ice in just about every single period and clearly in every game. What has defined the Penguins this playoff season is brutal giveaways, sloppy play, weak breakouts out of their own end and the only reason they made it out of the first and second rounds is due to their extreme puck luck. Washington hit 14 more goalposts and crossbars than the Penguins in the seven game series.

Finally, we have the letdown factor after the Penguins blew a 3-1 series lead that forced them to play a Game 7 in Washington. The letdown factor would not come into play had the Penguins not won the Cup last year but they did. That at least takes away some of their hunger to continue. Despite beating the Caps, that series was very physical with the Pens’ captain taking the brunt of many of the blows. The Penguins wanted to beat Washington badly and now anything more might be anti-climactic. One has to question how much the Pens have left in the tank after 12 months of basically non-stop hockey. The Pens sent six players to the World Cup of Hockey in September after that gruelling Cup run. Connor Sheary and their captain are both one hit away from missing more time but we’re not counting on that. We’re counting on what we’ve seen in 12 playoff games from the Penguins and that is at least six very fortunate victories of their eight wins while getting badly outplayed by both the Jackets and Capitals. This is a dead-tired and banged up team that is out of gas and that does not have that ficticious “on” switch available.

The Senators figure to be more energetic and hungry here. After escaping the physical Bruins and their monster puck possession numbers, the Senators took care of the speedy Rangers and now look primed to make a run to their first Stanley Cup Finals in a decade. Coach Buy Boucher and his team have been playing the “nobody gives us a chance” card these entire playoffs and it has created a group with a chip on its shoulder. For whatever reason, both the market and the so-called experts do not like these Senators despite being one of the NHL’s most consistent teams since the puck dropped in October. It may surprise you to learn that Ottawa had the second most victories (17) in the league against top-10 teams. Only the Caps were better with 18 and Washington was a -170 favorite to beat Pittsburgh last round.

Overshadowed by the darling Leafs and Oilers, the Sens can’t seem to break through as “Canada’s” team. Before Game 7 between the Caps and Pens, we heard two prominent hockey writers debating the Sens “shocking” run and both were convinced that regardless of the outcome, Ottawa’s dream season would end in the Eastern Conference Finals. If both teams were hungry and healthy, Ottawa would be up against it here but that is not even close to being the case. At this very moment, Ottawa is in a much better position to advance than the Penguins. Ottawa’s defence blows away anything the Pens can put on the ice at this point. Ottawa runs out three very solid lines that are all capable of scoring and Craig Anderson can get just as hot as any goaltender in the league. Beyond the X’s and O’s, which does not favor the Penguins anyway, the Senators have a legit beef with this Penguins’ team after Sid the Kid mangled defenseman Marc Methot’s finger in a game earlier this season and we know the Sens have not forgotten Matt Cooke’s skate stomp that severed Karlsson’s Achilles tendon in 2013. There is some bad blood here even if it’s only one-sided, thus the Senators will have no problem finding fuel for their fire. This is a rock-solid, extremely talented Ottawa team with a player that is playing like Bobby Orr and that is no fu**ing joke. 

Finally and most importantly is that the line here is complete lunacy. We’re strongly suggesting that Ottawa has a better chance to win than Pittsburgh based on everything we’ve seen this playoff season from both teams. Pittsburgh can’t get out of its own end these days and almost everyone up front is burned out while the Senators are not. By far, the best player this playoff year has been Karlsson and when you have a player playing like he is, look out (see Wayne Gretzky, Guy Lafleur, Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, Bryan Trottier and others). This line is based on results and perception and not performance and we’ve pointed out the flaws in that many times over the years. In terms of value, this is one of, if not the biggest overlay we have seen in a very long time. Again, we’re giving the Senators a better than 50% chance of winning and will play it accordingly. We’ll also play the Senators in each game individually as long as nothing changes. Massive overlay my friends that must be played. 

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