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Posted April 25th before Game 1

Series bet. The Rangers can win this series for sure. New York’s strength is that they can score goals and when you can score goals, you always have a chance. Rick Nash was a beast against Montreal. Despite scoring just two goals and an assist, he drove hard to the net and set the tone up front. Derek Stepan and Chris Kreider struggled against Montreal but it would be unreasonable to expect that pair to struggle in this series too. They are too good to not be noticeable. New York defeated Montreal and Carey Price in six games despite some big names not producing. Jimmy Vesey showed he was ready for prime time. Playing with a snarl and bite, he made plays the entire series and of course there is the usual suspects like Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad. Pavel Buchnevich and Michael Grabner round out a group of forwards that is as dangerous as any group in the game. Scoring goals is not the problem. The problem is puck possession.

New York remains the worst puck possession team in the playoffs but the Canadiens were not able to exploit that weakness because they are not a “cycle” team. The Canadiens do not have the big bodies going into the corners and out-battling the opposition for the puck. They are more of a finesse team. While the Rangers defense is better this year with the additions of Brendan Smith and Brady Skjei, the analytics say that they’re just very slightly better than a year ago. The Senators just need to watch film of the Rags in last year’s playoffs and they’ll have the blueprint to bury them.

The Senators raw Corsi was better than New York’s plus they were better in the final 25 games of the regular season as well as in the first round of the playoffs. What’s significant about that is Ottawa played a monster possession team in Boston in the first round and won the possession battle. Winning the possession battle against New York absolutely figures to be easier.

As far as talent up front, the Sens can match the Rags line for line and then some. The Ryan Dzingel, Kyle Turris, Alexandre Burrows line is big, tough and dangerous. The Clarke MacArthur, Derick Brassard, Bobby Ryan line is big, tough, dangerous and quick. MacArthur returning and having an impact not only gives the Sens a massive boost, it’s also one more problem that the Rags have to deal with. The Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone line is creative, quick, extremely talented and so damn dangerous. That third line might be the most underrated threesome in the game. Finally, there is the fourth line of Viktor Stalberg, Zack Smith and Tommy Wingels or Tom Pyatt. Both Stalberg and Smith are top nine forwards on 95% of the teams in this league but on Ottawa they are fourth line players and we haven’t even mentioned the best player in the series yet. Ottawa has Erik Karlsson and New York doesn’t. Ottawa has the best skater in this series, and sometimes that can make all the difference. Alex Novet of Hockey Graphs has a great article on why hockey is a “strong link” game, making Karlsson more important than this market realizes.

Speaking of the market, we have to question once again why the Senators are a dog again. They have home ice advantage, they have the best player in the series, they almost swept the Bruins and they have zero disadvantages in this series. That brings us back to value where the market has this series wrongly priced. Ottawa continues to be the most disrespected team in the market and it’s because they are Canada’s “small market” team that few watched during the regular season while the Rangers are in the biggest market on the continent. If all things bounce equally, Ottawa should have an easier time disposing of the Rags than they did disposing of the Bruins. 

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