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Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

OT included. The ghosts of playoffs past continue to haunt the Capitals and it may be hard to shake them off. Washington now comes into this game in Pittsburgh down 0-2 after losing 6-2 in Game 2. Braden Holtby was yanked. Back in February against Pittsburgh, the Caps lost 8-7 and Holtby was yanked in that game too. We suggested before last game that the Penguins might be in his head and that is certainly possible.

It can't be easy for the Caps to find answers against the Penguins right now, as any mistake or opening that Washington gives to Pittsburgh is turning up as goals against. It's impossible to quantify intangible items like momentum and psychology, but you cannot take the human element out of anything. The core of this Washington group knows that they have lost six of the last eight playoff games to the Pens in the past 12 months, not to mention eight of the last nine series. What is their left to say?

Well, it can be said that all roads to the Stanley Cup go through Pittsburgh. The Caps have never found a way out of town to continue that journey and things are looking bleak once again. However, if this team is different, really and truly different, they are now going to have to find in ample supply of the one thing that no team before them has evidenced in large supply before --- resolve ---and we’re going to bet they find it and here’s why:

Pittsburgh looked awful in winning their first round series against Columbus. They won that series purely on luck and weak goaltending by Sergei Bobrovsky. In the five games of that series, Pittsburgh was the better team on the ice in zero games. In Game 1 of this series in D.C., Pittsburgh looked awful but once again, the puck bounced their way and they pulled out a very fortunate victory. We suggested before Game 2 that Pittsburgh won despite a weak effort and that one cannot reasonably expect another weak effort from the Pens in Game 2. We were wrong. For 60 minutes, it looked like Pittsburgh was killing a penalty. The entire first period was played in Pittsburgh’s end and the score could have easily been 5-0 after one period for the Caps. The rest of the game was mostly played in Pittsburgh’s end too. For 120 minutes of this series, the Penguins have been absolutely and unequivocally dominated throughout.

In 1990, the San Francisco 49ers obliterated the Broncos in the Super Bowl, 55-10. Washington’s dominance over Pittsburgh in this series has been just as convincing as the 49ers win over Denver but Pittsburgh’s luck has been off the charts with not one, but two miracle wins. That 6-2 Penguins victory in Game 2 is one of the most misleading scores in NHL playoff history. Indeed, Game 2 was one-sided but it should have been a five goal or more Washington win and not a four-goal loss.

For seven games in these playoffs, we’ve been anticipating a Penguins wake-up call. It has not happened and it appears they are getting worse. The Pens defense is an absolute wasteland of mistakes that have turned into glorious scoring chances and somehow, someway, the opposition has not capitalized. The Penguins can thank the post, crossbar and unlucky deflections for that. These playoffs have been one horrible turnover after another for the Penguins and there is no wake-up call on the horizon, just like there is no on/off switch that the Penguins can reach for.

Between last year and this year, Pittsburgh’s core has played a ton of hockey. A Stanley Cup victory into late June last year combined with several players participating in the World Cup in September followed by another grueling year filled with injuries has the Penguins gassed. It is beyond clear to us that the Penguins are not the same team this year nor are they as hungry. Pittsburgh is winning for two reasons. One, their luck has been through the roof. Secondly, Marc Andre Fleury has bailed them out in all six victories. Luck runs out and if we lose this bet, so be it but we’re seeing a complete domination of one team over another and we don’t see anything that suggests the Penguins are about to flip a switch on because one doesn’t exist.

When the Capitals were in trouble heading to Toronto, they played two outstanding road games and they also played great in Game 6 in Toronto. Pittsburgh has put up a fraction of the fight that the Maple Leafs put up and all Washington needs is a break to get over the hump. They don’t need luck either. They have clearly been the superior team by a wide, wide margin and if things break evenly, Washington will win easily here and go on to win the series. One game at a time for now. 

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