_{BEST LINES: Pinnacle +115 Bet365 +110 SportsInteraction +110  5DIMES +110}

_{Posted Friday at 1:15 PM EST & updated Sunday at 11:00 AM EST.} 

1:00 PM EST. In their many opportunities this season, the Dolphins sure have made an impression on the market when given the chance to be featured in a showcase game. In four outings when they were featured in a stand-alone game, the Fish have been outscored 132-45 including last Monday night where they were blown out once again, 45-21 by the Panthers. Perception is everything and the media focus this week on the Dolphins is how they are in desperate need of a bye, which would have come this week if not for Hurricane Irma moving this game with the Buccaneers 10 weeks down the road. Adding to the Dolphins perceived woes is the fact they are on a three game losing streak after a surprising 4-2 start to the year. The reality is the Dolphins were never as good as their start out of the gate would indicate, and they aren’t as bad as this current stretch suggests. Quarterback Jay Cutler is a player the media and market love to hate, and while his perpetually pouty face is easy to dislike, he has been throwing a good ball since returning from injury. Cutler has thrown nine touchdowns and just three interceptions over his last four games but the biggest one of those came on MNF against Carolina, crushing the hopes of the many Dolphin backers in that one, as Miami was completely lifeless in the second half.

You know things aren’t going well in Tampa when the Jon Gruden rumors begin to pick up steam, as they have again this week. The Buccaneers are meddling through another disappointing season at 3-6 and they’ve been a strong fade covering just two games all year. Last week’s win over the Jets was the first ticket the Bucs have cashed since their opening game of the season in Week 2 against the Bears. Even with the win, Tampa was outgained by the Jets, and while backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting credit for leading this team to a win, he was his below average self, completing just half of his passes (17 for 34) for 187 yards with a TD and an interception. It doesn’t get any more pedestrian than that. The beleaguered Bucs defense was finally able to stop somebody, but while Josh McCown is having a nice season, he’s no Broadway Joe. Tampa's D is still god awful and the metrics don’t lie, as they the bring the 28th ranked DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) D into this one. Tampa is particularly weak against the pass (28th), although its run defense isn’t much better (20th).

The Fish opened as three point home favorite at most outfits but the market has taken a stand on this game as they pounced on the Bucs, and this game is now a pick ‘em. While the Bucs are coming off a win, beating the Jets does not impress. Tampa is winless on the road this year and has no business getting the attention it is from the market. Sure, the Fish were embarrassed on national television (again), but there is often an overreaction to these prime time games and the Dolphins have been totally exposed to everyone by playing on TNF, SNF and MNF respectively the last three weeks. The Dolphins have better overall talent and a far better defense and Jay Cutler is very likely going to find some more room this week against a Tampa defense that's the weakest Miami has faced all year. The Bucs evenly priced on the road against anyone is worth fading because they truly are as bad as they look.

Note: Again, this game is high on our radar but we want to see where the line settles before we dive in. This is another game we'll update on Sunday.  

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