L.A. Rams @ MINNESOTA
L.A. Rams +126 over MINNESOTA

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +126 Bet365 +115 SportsInteraction +115  5DIMES +120

Posted Friday at 1:30 PM EST

1:00 PM EST. With an ESPN graphic comparing Case Keenum’s 2017 to Tom Brady’s 2001 (after Brady took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe) going viral this week, we guess the word is finally out on how good Keenum has been so far this season. Keenum was quietly putting together a nice campaign, but with franchise quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater cleared and ready to go, the pressure will be on the journeyman QB to keep it up. Through his first four games this season, Keenum had an impressive 4-0 touchdown to pick ratio, but turnovers are totally luck based and a correction has come. In Keenum’s last three starts, he’s thrown three picks with just three touchdowns. His QB rating in his the last three starts is 78.7, 67.7 and 88.1 respectively and while he’s the third ranked quarterback in ESPN’s QBR rankings, Keenum is trending downwards. Mindset also plays a big factor. With Bradford out for the season, the pressure was off Keenum but with the return of Teddy Wobblyballs, the heat has been turned up considerably. Bridgewater is loved in the Vikings dressing room and there is no doubt he’s considered the future by the front office brass. That fact will also put pressure on the coaching staff to make the switch if Keenum stumbles. Look what happened to Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo this week. When the Bills were winning, everything was beautiful. One horrible game and the playoff hopeful Bills benched him and are now rolling with a rookie under center that nobody has ever heard of. We’ve been buying up Case Keenum and the Vikes for weeks but now is the right time to cash out.

The Rams are scoring in bunches, but with their lack of competition recently (Texans, Giants) those quality efforts aren’t getting the credit they deserve. The Rams are totally legit. As the league’s number one overall DVOA team (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average), L.A. should be destroying bottom feeders like the G-Men and they did. A further look shows that the Rams are getting it done in all three aspects of the game, as they sport the number 11 DVOA offense, number one defense, and the top special teams unit. L.A. quarterback Jared Goff was Keenum’s understudy last season and it’s almost incredible how much better the both of them have been after escaping former head coach Jeff Fisher’s clutches. Goff is fifth in QB DVOA and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), while leading the league’s highest scoring offense at 32.9 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams are also tops in DVOA against the pass. That could be trouble for Keenum, as many of these Rams went against him every day in practice last season. This defense knows Keenum’s tendencies and his tells.

These two teams come into this game with identical 7-2 records so we can understand that laying a small price with the hometown Vikings might be appealing, but this contest comes at a strange time for the Vikes. Minny hasn’t played a home game since October 22nd after its bye was sandwiched between two road games. After Sunday, the Vikes have a very quick turnaround, as they will be featured on Thanksgiving Day Thursday in Detroit.   Thanksgiving is the biggest regular season football day of the year and all eyes will be on those nationally televised games. These guys love being the center of attention and there is no doubt the Vikings coaching staff is already working on their game plan for the Lions while the Rams should be laser focused on this road game.  While they are on the radar, we don’t think the market has caught up to how strong this Rams’ team really is.  There is still room on the Rams bandwagon and it’ll once again very likely be on the way to the cashier’s window.

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Our Pick

L.A. Rams +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)