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Posted Sunday at 9:15 AM EST.

1:00 PM EST. When we can get the superior QB with points it’s always worth having a look at. Quarterback play is still the Jags’ biggest weakness with Blake Bortles at the helm. Bortles leads an offense that ranked 15th in total DVOA but that is largely because of their run game. Bortles is 19th in total QB DVOA, 20th in DYAR and 19th in QBR. Bortles rank ranges in line with Carson Palmer and Eli Manning, two veteran QBs that have been skewered for their poor performance this season. The Jags stock is high after another good showing last week against the Bengals but it’s their defense that makes them difficult to bet against. Their offense is pedestrian at best and this is exactly the type of game that Blake Bortles will remind us why he’s been so bad for so long and why we would’ve never spotted points with him in the past.  You see, the Bolts have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and we absolutely do not trust Bortles when the heat is on. Bortles has been an interception machine his entire career but has only thrown five picks this season. However, he ranks 32nd out of 33 QB’s against the blitz. Bortles being hurried here might trigger some ghosts of his past.

Meanwhile, the Chargers’ defense ranks second in the AFC right behind the Jags so there’s that. Under duress or not, Philip Rivers is preferred over Bortles 100% of the time. Rivers can move the chains on anyone and has proven so over his entire career and now he and the Bolts have had two weeks to prep for this one. The Chargers being on the road here is not a disadvantage either. They probably actually prefer it. The Chargers played in New England before their bye and allowed just 21 points. They have played Philadelphia, Denver twice and Kansas City among others. They lost by two points to Eagles and before New England, they shut out the Broncos. The most points L.A. has surrendered this season is 26 and but over the last month, they’ve allowed 22, 16, 0 and 21 points respectively and now we’re going to get +4½ against Bortles.

Lastly, the Jags have outscored their opponents, 80-16, in three of their past four games but when a team is dominating like that, you have likely missed the chance to get behind them. Furthermore, Jacksonville’s stock hasn’t been this high since the days of Mark Brunell so it’s about the worst time to buy them while the Chargers have somewhat become the NFL’s forgotten team. San Diego’s only loss over the last month was in New England. Their under the hood numbers, which are good to begin with might even be better because they don’t really have a home-field advantage. Yeah, the Jags can win and cover here but the Chargers match up well for this one and we get some nice points behind a great and very much underrated defense not to mention the better QB. Man, is it tempting to play this one straight up but the points are too good to pass up on. 

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