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_{Posted Friday at 2:45 PM EST}

1:00 PM EST. Word on the Jets refusal to quit this season made its way to the masses last Thursday night in a big prime time win over the Bills. At 4-5, the Jets have played themselves out of a top draft pick and they aren’t even the worst tenants in their own stadium. If fantasy is reality, and in the money hungry NFL it is, then Jets quarterback Josh McCown is a commodity worth selling, as he’s gotten noticed in daily fantasy circles as a cheap and productive option. Despite their record, the Jets are not a good football team. In addition to the Bills, the Jets have wins over the Browns, Jaguars and Dolphins and while the victory over the Jags looks impressive now, Gang Green caught Jacksonville in a vulnerable position, upon its return from London and without a bye. A deep look at the analytics shows the Jets are the bottom feeders many expected them to be by ranking 24th in total team DVOA, (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average). The highly praised McCown might be putting up quality fantasy numbers but in reality he’s the 27th DVOA quarterback and he’s a -121 yards in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). A negative DYAR suggests that just about any average Joe QB could do a better job. Comically, McCown is sandwiched between Brian Hoyer and Trevor Siemian, both of which have in fact been replaced. The Jets are not even close to being close to a .500 squad, thus, a correction is coming.

Tampa Bay again entered this season with high expectations, but at 2-6 it’s the same old disappointing Bucs. Tampa is riding a five-game losing streak and finally rode Jameis Winston until his shoulder practically separated from his torso. So now that Winston is out, journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick is in. On top of all that, star wide receiver, Mike Evans is suspended. Even with all of their tools in the box, the Bucs were an easy fade last week against the Saints and the market got paid. Without Winston or Evans, it doesn’t really do much good to dive into Tampa's decent offensive numbers but that has nothing to do with this choice. We’re in the over and under-reaction business and this is absolutely an overreaction to TB missing its two most high profile players. What we do know about the Buccaneers is that their stock is low, they’ve been ravaged by injuries and suspensions and they still have one of the worst defenses in the league. That, too has market influence and has helped to create this overreaction.

While it might not seem it, this game sets up perfectly for the Bucs. The deck looks totally stacked against them with their injuries and suspensions while the Jets are winning games and they’re coming off a big prime time win over the Bills, a team that was then 5-2 and perceived as difficult to beat. At the same time, the Bucs just got blown out by New Orleans and Carolina in back-to-weeks. Their #! QB is out but let us assure you that Winston wasn't effective with his shoulder hurting anyway and Ryan Fitzpatrick is not much of a step-down. Fitzpatrick came into the Week 6 game in Arizona and passed for 290 yards and three TD’s. That the New York Jets are favored on the road when they were a dog at home to Buffalo last week shows exactly how this erratic market fluctuates and reacts. This is a 100% overreaction to some very recent results and it prompts us to move in hard on the Bucs outright.

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