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_{Posted Friday at 2:45 PM EST}

1:00 PM EST. The last time we saw the Bills they were sporting a 5-2 record and were a popular pick in a prime time Thursday night game versus the Jets. We all know what happened next. The last time we saw the Saints, they, too were a popular pick as a 7-point choice against the Buccaneers but unlike the Bills, the Saints delivered the goods with a resounding 30-10 victory. The game was never close, as the Saints ran their winning streak to six and are suddenly the second hottest team in the NFL behind Philadelphia. We’re pretty sure that regular readers of this section know exactly where we’re going here. In terms of setups for playing an overhyped team, this one fits almost every criterion we try to take advantage of. Not only is there an overreaction to the Saints and their winning streak but there is also an overreaction to the Bills getting manhandled in prime time by the Jets. That’s our prompt to move in hard.

The talk around the Saints surrounds their “new-found” defense. Four teams rank among the NFL's top 10 in both points scored and fewest points allowed and New Orleans is one of them. That’s a great selling point but we’re not ready to concede that New Orleans’ defense is as good as advertised. In their five straight wins, the Saints defeated, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Green Bay (minus Aaron Rodgers), Detroit, Miami and Carolina. Five of those teams (Detroit is the exception), can’t move five yards. When the Saints played Detroit, the Lions racked up 38 points. When the Saints played the Patriots and Vikes earlier this year, they surrendered 36 and 29 points respectively and went 0-2. Buffalo’s offense isn’t much better than the one’s mentioned above but the Saints have some things to deal with here in a mobile quarterback with a stud running back. The Saints will also have to deal with playing in Buffalo, where the track is slower and the temperatures are much colder. Buffalo is 4-0 at home. That counts for something. The last time the Bills were at home they beat the Raiders by 20 points. The last time Drew Brees played in Buffalo, he threw for 156 yards. Bills QB, Trent Edwards threw for 154 yards on that day. The game before that in Buffalo, Brees went 13-of-24 for 148 yards with no touchdowns. The point is that this is not a comfortable place for Brees to play in. Furthermore, Tyrod Taylor comes off his best game of the year when he passed for 285 yards and two scores and rushed for a third touchdown. That was his second week in a row with a rushing score and highest passing yardage. The trade for Kelvin Benjamin should start paying dividends this week too. The impressive winning pace that New Orleans is on right now is going to influence much of this market. The unimpressive display that the Bills put on in prime time last week is also going to influence the market. We are not going to take away from any team that puts together a six-game winning streak but the Saints road record when spotting points over the past three seasons from 2014 to 2016 is downright ugly and we’re not going to ignore that either. The small price one must lay with this enticing favorite is the final warning sign. Bills outright is the call.

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