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Posted at 2:00 PM EST.

8:25 PM EST. The Bills are 5-2 after stampeding to a 34-14 home win over the Raiders last Sunday. Not only is its record surprising but Buffalo has quietly been one of the best bets in the NFL this season by going 5-1-1 against the spread and building rapport with the market with each ticket cashed. The Bills' resume looks pretty good on paper with just two losses coming on the road at Cincinnati and Carolina by a combined seven points. We can definitely see the appeal in the Bills but we are in the buy low, sell high business and Buffalo’s stock is soaring.  While the big win over Oakland does look impressive, one cannot ignore that the Bills won the luck based turnover battle 4-0. If you are +4 in turnovers you should win the game by double digits and that’s all there is to it. Buffalo is now a league-best +14 in turnover margin and while there’s nothing that suggests the party has to end here, there is likely to a correction coming. Well, now it gets interesting because the playoffs are a reality for Buffalo, as that’s all they’ve been hearing since Sunday by the local media. The point is the Bills haven’t been to the playoffs since Wade Phillips was coaching this team 17 seasons ago and now, for the first time this season, they are feeling some pressure. On the road with its stock high is not the right time to get behind this unproven bunch.

The Jets were supposed to be a laughing stock this season, as the front office did it’s best to set head coach Todd Bowles and company up for failure. They signed an aging career backup quarterback to lead the charge and many books had Bowles as the odds-on favorite to be the first coach fired this season. Instead, the Jets are 3-5, but at the window where it counts, Gang Green has covered five of their last six games with the only blemish being a push at Miami in a game New York probably should have won. The Jets turned some heads with a three-game winning streak after dropping the first two games of the season in embarrassing fashion but after three straight losses, the Jets’ stock is low again but this team is playing competitive football. Their losses during this run have come against the aforementioned Fish and two teams that played in the Super Bowl last season. The Jets had both the Patriots and Falcons on the ropes before falling in the end.

These two teams played in Week 1 and while we do not put much stock into a game that took place almost two months ago, we’ve seen much analysis that does so we will use that previous result to our advantage. The Bills outgained the Jets 408-214 and outrushed them 190-38 while cruising to a 21-12 victory as a seven-point home favorite. Now the Bills, whose profile is much higher in the market, are being asked to lay just a field goal against a team they’ve already beat and is not perceived to be on their level. This is the only prime time game the Jets will get to play in this season, so you know it’s a big deal for these guys. Players love being in a featured contest and the short week should also benefit the home side. We’ve seen many small road favorites lay an egg in these Thursday night games over the years and we’ve seen the Bills play down to their competition this season in games against the Bengals and Bucs. After this week, the Bills have a brutal four-game stretch that will see them play the Saints, at the Chargers, at the Chiefs and home to the Patriots so we would not be shocked if they are flat tonight after some celebratory victories. It’s tough enough for well-established, strong pedigreed teams to travel on a short week with little preparation time and play well so trusting the Bills to do so may be a big mistake.

Just like games in London that are often blowouts, Thursday night games are also a big cash grab that often results in a blowout or one team or both not being well-prepped. Players are barely over the physical toll that Sunday just took on them so the team that is traveling is at an even bigger disadvantage. You have to be really good and very ready to travel and win on such a short week and we’re not ready to trust the Bills in that role right now. 

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