Denver @ KANSAS CITY
Denver +7 -103 over KANSAS CITY

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +7 -103 Bet365 +7 -110 SportsInteraction +7 -110 5DIMES +7 -110

Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

8:30 PM EST. The last time we saw the Chiefs was on Thursday night almost two weeks ago when they lost to the Raiders, 31-30. The market will forgive them for one lousy loss in a road game on a short week after they played the Steelers the week before. We’ll forgive the Chiefs too but perhaps they’ve become a bigger risk than this market thinks. Remember two weeks ago when the Chiefs were dominated by the Steelers. Pittsburgh outgained the Chiefs by close to 200 yards overall. That 19-13 final score might as well have been 41-13 because that’s how big a mismatch it was that day. How about three weeks ago in Houston? K.C. won 42-34 but they were outgained in that one too and were fortunate to win it. What about four weeks ago? That was that bizarre ending on Monday night against Washington in which the Chiefs were favored by 6½ and had a three-point lead until the final play of the game when they scored on a strip-6. The Chiefs were fortunate to escape that one too. K.C. was an eight-point dog to open the year in New England. Two weeks ago, they were -3½ at home to Pittsburgh. They were favored by -6½ over Washington on that Monday night a month ago and had no business covering. This is the most they’ve been favored all season long and frankly, they haven’t even played well in their own barn. All three of Alex Smith’s 300+ yard games were on the road and each had at least three touchdowns. At home, he's never had more than one passing touchdown and threw three of his four lowest yardage games at Arrowhead. The Chiefs have been outgained in four of their past six games and has been favored by four or less in every game but one. On this day however, the Chiefs are a seven-point choice against a bitter rival that knows them well because that bitter rival’s stock has hit the skids.

Denver was a 13-point favorite over the Giants in prime time two weeks ago and lost outright. We want to remind you that Philadelphia was a 13-point favorite over the 49ers yesterday, thus, the oddsmakers figured that Denver/ NYG was as big a mismatch as Phil/SF. Upsets happen so it was no big deal that the Broncos lost to the G-Men but it was a big deal that they followed that up with a 21-0 loss to the Chargers last week. Those two losses have triggered this outrageous line and we can assure you that the number 7 is posted all over that Broncos locker room. Every single player coach and insect inside that Broncs dressing room knows the spread for this game and it’s disrespectful to all of them. More importantly, it’s hugely motivating too. You take a team like Denver with all of its talented defensive players and pedigree and back them into a corner and they’re likely to respond with a great effort. They were told they couldn’t beat Cam Newton and the Panthers in the Super Bowl the year before last and they came out and destroyed them.

It's always critical to determine why the games play out the way they do after the fact, and whether the outcome reveals more strength in the victor or weakness in the vanquished. Denver’s recent woes have been blamed on QB Trevor Siemian and rightfully so but Siemian wasn't nearly this bad in 2016 with the same receivers and remember what he did to Dallas in Week 2? We always want to identify teams that are good but have looked really bad recently and this is one of those spots. The past two weeks, as identified in this space, was the time to fade the Broncs because their stock was too high but that has changed based on losses to the Giants and Chargers. It is not the right time to fade the Broncs as that ship sailed already. Instead, the timing is now right to jump aboard this sinking ship before their stock rises again. Big time overlay here.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

Denver +7 -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)