BEST LINES: Pinnacle  -2½ -110 Bet365 -2½ -105 SportsInteraction -2 -105 5DIMES -2½ -110

Posted Friday at 2:45 PM EST.

BUFFALO -2½ -105 over Oakland

1:00 PM EST. What do the Bills have to do to get some respect in this market? After a 30-27 home win over Tampa last week to move to 4-2, Buffalo opened this week as just a field goal favorite over Oakland. The market took a stand and jumped all over the visiting Raiders, driving this line off the key number of three. While its game last Sunday was a push, Buffalo is always a tough out at home and they proved it again in that comeback win over the Bucs. The Bills bring a top 10 (8th) DVOA defense to the table and this unit does a great job of defending both the run (7th) and pass (11th). The Bills also bring an elite special teams unit into this game ranking 6th in DVOA.  With all facets of the game factored in, the Bills are tied with the Seahawks at 12.1% total DVOA which suggests they have the goods to back up their record. Finally, the Bills are just the sixth least penalized team in the NFL, officially shedding the stink of the Ryan Brothers.

This was supposed to be the year the Raiders took a leap to the next level in the AFC, but it’s been a rocky road to start the season. Quarterback Derek Carr has already missed one game to injury, but after leading his team to a comeback win over the Chiefs last Thursday night, the market seems to be back on board with the Silver and Black. We’d like to give Oakland credit for a quality win over Kansas City but the improbable series of events that led to the game-winning touchdown would take up too much space to cover here. The Raiders are a very popular team in the market and especially on the ground in Vegas, which is further enhanced by the team’s planned relocation to Sin City. While all seems to be right with Carr back at the helm, the Raiders are actually the third worst team in offensive time of possession, just ahead of the Giants and 49ers who have one combined win between them. Because their offense can't stay on the field, the Raiders defense has been punished this season and rank 29th in defensive DVOA. Oakland is weak against both the pass (31st) and the run (20th). The Raiders have been outgained in four of their last five games by an average of 144.25 yards. The reality is that the Raiders are a middle of the pack team but coming off a huge primetime win has reinvigorated the market's interest in them. The Bills are the superior team here but are not priced as such. The Bills can play keep away all game, wear out this already worn out defense and get us to the cashier’s window in rather convincing style.    

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