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Posted Friday at 2:45 PM EST.

1:00 PM EST. Despite its two wins, Indianapolis might be the worst team in the NFL. The Colts are 32nd in total DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average). A further breakdown shows they are 31st in offensive DVOA and 30th on defense. Indy’s two wins this season have also come against the weakest of competition in the Browns and 49ers who are a combined 0-14 in 2017. The Colt’s perception in the market seems to be largely based on two decent halves of football in a pair of prime-time games this season. Indy hung around with the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football before the train came off the tracks and it had a double-digit lead over the Titans on MNF before melting down again. The Colt’s might look like a Jekyll and Hyde kind of team that is capable of playing well from time to time but trust us, this team has very little of the good doctor in it and no matter how well they start, they cannot mask the evil within. The Colts are who we think they are. They are a dumpster fire of the highest kind.  

Like the Colts, the Bengals are a two-win team but Cincy hasn’t been nearly as bad as its competition this week.  The Bengals bring a solid defensive unit to the table, ranking 11th in defensive DVOA, sandwiched between the Vikings and Panthers, who both carry a lot more weight in the market. The Bengals were beat 29-14 by the Steelers last Sunday but there is no shame in that loss, as the Steelers are the top DVOA team in the league after seven weeks. The Bengals beat the Bills two weeks ago and had the Packers on the ropes before becoming another tick on Aaron Rodgers’ belt. The Bengals had such a poor start to the season that they have not yet recovered in the market. Andy Dalton was written off as the worst quarterback in the league after the first two weeks but since then he and the offense have been competent enough to support a very good defense.

What appears on paper to be a battle between a pair of two-win teams is actually quite a mismatch, as this line would indicate. The question now becomes how can Cincy be laying double digits to anyone, especially when it hasn’t been any more than a -5 point favorite all season (and lost that game outright)? For an explanation we need to look back at the only team the Bengals have played that’s on the Colts level this season and that is the Browns. Cincy crushed Cleveland 31-7 as a -3 point favorite. Those 31 points are significant, as the Browns defense is a full 14.3% DVOA points higher than the Colts. The game total of 41 is the second-lowest total on the board this week and the numbers suggest only one of these teams is likely to put up points. While taking back double digits with the Colts may look appealing, be warned this one is likely to get ugly and it’s not going to be Indy running up the score. The Bengals are much better than their two wins indicate while the Colts are worse. The difference between the league's bottom tier squad and the Bengals is more than two touchdowns and we’re not even being asked to spot that. 

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