BEST LINES: Pinnacle -2 -108 Bet365 -1½ -105 SportsInteraction -1½ -110 5DIMES -2 -110

Posted Friday at 2:45 PM EST.

1:00 PM EST. While the Panthers are 4-2, that is not the story this week. Quarterback Cam Newton has again stirred things up with reporters and continues to act like a spoiled child at nearly every opportunity. Considering this teams’ defense is carrying the bulk of the load, Newton should maybe just lay low and focus on the game.  A look under the hood shows that Cam’s game needs a real tune-up. Newton is just 22nd in DYAR at +1 which indicates that just about any average Joe QB could step in and do a comparable job. Newton's QBR is just 48.8%, which is good for just 19th while keeping company with the likes of Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer and Jacoby Brissett. Nobody is confusing those guys for an elite quarterback. (QBR incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties.

The Buccaneers were a sexy sleeper pick again this offseason and just seven weeks into the campaign they have disappointed, again. While it looks bad at 2-4 all is not lost for the Bucs. Quarterback play is so important in the NFL with the league trying to encourage more offense. In that regard, Jameis Winston is actually having a fine season. Winston is 6th in QB DVOA and his DYAR is 466 yards higher than Newton coming into this game. Tampa is also 6th in total offensive DVOA, ranking ahead of teams like the Eagles and Raiders, both offenses that get much more attention in the market.

For the third week in a row, the Panthers are laying a small price and the last two weeks it did not go well for them, as they lost 17-3 at Chicago and 28-23 at home to the Eagles. If the case against the Bucs is their weak defense, which was a major talking point ahead of their TNF game against the Patriots in Week 5, then we will highlight their performance in that game where they were able to hold the Pats to under 20 points. That’s more than we can say about this Panthers unit which gave up 30 when they played New England. We’d also like to point to Carolina’s Week 3 matchup with the Saints where Newton and company failed to put up more than 13 points against another defense the market perceived to be weak. The Panthers were also a short price in that game and got blown out 34-14.  Carolina has struggled to cover games in its division (just 1-6 dating back to last season) and they have a home date with the defending NFC South Champion Falcons on deck next week. This is a bad spot and a bad matchup for Carolina. By contrast, the Bucs stock is low and we’re buying.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.