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Posted Friday at 1:15 PM EST.

Week  8 Preview:

In this weekly space, we'll cover every NFL game that we're not wagering on. Remember, these are not official plays and if we do decide to make any of these official plays, we'll move them into that category. Please note that the BEST LINES available are also listed, 

The Rest of the Games

Minnesota -9½ over Cleveland

9:30 AM EST. The NFL cash-grab continues this week across the pond and we’re not wavering from our refusal to bet games that take teams completely out of their routine. It is no coincidence that most games are blowouts and we don’t want to get involved when there are 250 other games to choose from every week. The NFL says they are considering locating a team in England for the 2021 or 2022 season but don’t believe it. New markets, new audiences, whole new populations of people to use as a revenue stream is the only reason they are there.

The 5-2 Vikings come off their third straight win. The 0-7 Browns are still searching for that elusive first win much as they may in every game this year. There is always the hope for a trap game against an opponent that tried to mail in their win but it’s hard to see it happening against a very good defense. It’s also hard to be optimistic to expect the Browns to travel better than the Vikings. The blowouts that occur frequently in London has us leaning Vikes because if there is another blowout, we highly doubt it’ll be the Brownies doing the blowing out. Furthermore, the Brownies are one of a handful of teams left that has yet to make this trip overseas and the last team making its first trip was the Ravens, who got smoked by the Jags, 44-7 earlier this year. There is no way we’re spotting 9½-points with the Vikes and the only reason were leaning their way is because of the two aforementioned factors. No interest here and no recommendations but if you must bet a game at 9:30 AM EST or 6:30 AM PST, than take the Vikes. Play Minnesota -9½ (No bets). 

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N.Y. JETS +4 over Atlanta

1:05 PM EST. The Falcons started the 2017 season with a 3-0 record, running roughshod of the NFC North with wins over Chicago, Green Bay and Detroit. Next up came a three-game run with the AFC East, which hasn’t gone nearly as well. With games against Buffalo and Miami at home and at New England, Atlanta has managed just 41 points in three straight losses. Fortunately for them, AFC losses don’t count against them in any tie-breaker scenario, but what started out as such a strong season has been swirling down the drain since Oct. 1 but we have to question the mood surrounding the Falcons in preparation for this one. The Falcons were excused for losing to Miami with the Patriots on deck but that excuse does not hold any weight anymore because they were not close to being ready for New England, a game they had circled on their calendars. After every team was gutting the Pats defense, Atlanta couldn’t move five yards. They wanted that game so badly that they were gambling early on fourth downs when they needed six and seven yards respectively. In terms of in-game decisions, Dan Quinn is completely clueless. It is inconceivable that the Falcons averaged 34 points per game in 2016 and can take the same players (but not offensive scheme) and average 21 points per game this year but only 13 points over the last three losses. The decline in the offense is profound and it is not from a suddenly tougher schedule. Atlanta was lucky to beat the Lions and should be on a four-game losing streak. This is a team that has lost its way and after last week’s revenge motivated game in New England in which they were embarrassed, may have lost their will too. This is not a road team you want to get behind spotting points. The Falcons are ripe for the pickings.

The Jets are coming off back-to-back loses to New England and Miami but they could have easily won them both.  In fact, the Jets could very easily be on a five-game winning streak. Here’s a team that beat Jacksonville, should’ve beaten New England and looked like a sure winner last week against the motivated Dolphins. After two tough losses, one has to wonder what the Jets mood is too but we’re not concerned. We read the practice reports after Wednesday’s first full practice of the week and we liked it.

After the Jets got done stretching at the beginning of practice Wednesday, linebacker Demario Davis gathered the team in the middle of the field and delivered an impassioned speech, emphasizing what the Jets need to fix moving forward. After, players said it was a good practice. It started with Davis, who has become a team leader in his second stint with the Jets. “It resonated with all of us,” quarterback Josh McCown said. Aside from one game in Oakland in Week 2, the Jets have been in every game this year and this one figures to be no different. Few teams face the pressure the Falcons do here, especially considering the Saints have won four games in a row to seize control of the NFC South lead. Football is an emotional game. Without focus and drive, no team can succeed no matter the talent discrepancy. After blowing the Super Bowl, the Falcons have not been the same team and now the losing has become contagious. Play N.Y. Jets +4 (no bets). 

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SEATTLE -5½ -108 over Houston

4:05 PM EST. Deshaun Watson and the Texas are officially on the radar after a string of five games that has seen the rookie quarterback go 3-2 since taking over the job with two very forgivable losses at the Patriots (36-33) and versus the then undefeated Chiefs (42-34). In the world of the NFL, fantasy is reality and Watson has made big waves in both DFS and season-long circles. That raises his profile in the market, as does the fact he’s covered in four of his first five starts. The market loves a winner and Watson is just that. We also believe he is for real but we also must react to the market’s infatuation with him. All we’ve heard about the Texans this week is that they are the “it” sleeper team now in the AFC. Everyone expects them to be well rested and healthier after the bye but we love to fade overvalued teams coming off a break. The break messes with their momentum and there’s a chance Houston could be caught flat-footed here. While a lot of weight has been put on Houston’s quality losses, we must also point out its fairly uninspiring list of victories. The Bengals, Titans and Browns are just a combined 6-14 and while Tennessee has four W’s,  two of those game against the Colts and Browns, two of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Seahawks look to have hit their stride after three straight wins and should be eager to return home after two road contests. The Seahawks perception in the market is not what it once was and we can point to their slow starts for a big reason why.  Seattle has had its hands full with very poor teams like the Colts and Giants but what seems lost is its very strong second halves to those games. Russell Wilson is playing at a very high level and is getting all of his receivers involved after finding 11 different targets against the G-Men last week. Wilson is getting credit for being a one-man show but a closer look shows that the Seahawks strength is still their defense.  This team is 9th in defensive DVOA while the offense is a surprising 17th. The defense is so good that it keeps Seattle in the top 10 to total DVOA at 12.1%. The Seahawks are also a different beast at home, sporting one of the loudest home-field advantages in the leagues. Bad things happen to good quarterbacks at CenturyLink Field and it can unravel quickly. The Seahawks defense is known to carry a huge chip on their shoulders and should be motivated to derail the Deshaun Watson hype train. Don’t sleep on the Legion of Boom. Play Seattle -5½ (No bets). 

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L.A. Chargers +7½ over NEW ENGLAND

1:00 PM EST. Put this week aside for a second and let’s discuss last week. New England came in with a struggling defense that couldn’t stop anyone. The Patriots were 4-2 prior to last week but they weren’t hot and they weren’t cold either. The Pats had just escaped the Jets the week before on a hugely controversial call and the week before that; the Pats barely escaped the Buccaneers, 19-14.

Atlanta was cold. The Dirty Birds revenge motivated date with the Pats in prime time came after Atlanta had just lost to Buffalo and Miami, the latter as a 13-point choice. Against that pair, the high-flying Falcons managed to score 34 points combined. Three weeks ago, Atlanta got help from the zebras against Detroit otherwise they would have been facing New England on a three-game losing streak. Consider all the above and then note last week’s Atlanta/New England rematch was in Foxboro and the Patriots were a mere -3½-point choice.

Enter the Chargers this week, who are on a three-game winning streak. Enter the Chargers this week, whose last loss was to Philadelphia by a score of 26-24. Their last loss before that was to Kansas City. The Bolts could easily be on a four-game winning streak that would’ve included a win over Philadelphia. They come in very warm and confident. Last week, New England was a -3½ point choice over the cold Falcons and this week the Pats are a -7½-point choice over the warm Chargers all because of one overreaction to New England whacking the Falcons in prime time. That can’t be.

You are also going to read or hear that when Tom Brady is the quarterback, the Pats are 6-0 opposite quarterback Philip Rivers. Not since more than a decade ago – October 2005 – has a Brady-quarterbacked team lost to Team Spanos, a fellow AFC club. To that we say big deal, as that is another useless trend that only works in our favor more. New England's high-powered offense has been held below 20 points in consecutive weeks and below 25 for three straight. Now Tom Brady and Co. face a Chargers’ defense that's eighth in the NFL in points allowed. Philip Rivers and Co. will take back 7½-points here against the NFL’s 32nd ranked pass defense. In sticking with our philosophy of betting against overreactions to one result, the Bolts are the prudent choice. Play: San Diego +7½ (No bets).  

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Chicago +9 over NEW ORLEANS 

1:00 PM EST. We all know the story of the Bears 14-point victory last week over Carolina. There were more points in the TEN-CLE game and they had no touchdowns. The Bears only totaled 175 yards of offense and that was aided by the 70-yard catch by Tarik Cohen. Mitchell Trubisky completed four-of-seven passes for 107 yards. It would have been just 37 yards was it not for the Cohen catch. It was called one of the luckiest victories in NFL history and now the smart guys think that fading the Bears will work because the result was misleading. It was misleading but once again, we emphasize to not put too much emphasis on one game.  

Mitchell Trubisky is just getting his feet wet. The Bears have him learning on the go and at some point they are going to open up the playbook a little bit more. In Trubisky's three NFL starts, he has flashed his athletic ability, arm strength and accuracy on the move but the Bears also have rolled out extremely limited game plans for the rookie, and the offense is averaging only 12.7 points per game in his starts. Trubinsky is going to get progressively better with each passing week. Don’t count him out. Aside from that, the Bears played a defensive brand of football the past two weeks that hasn’t been seen around these parts since the days of Lovie Smith and the “Monsters of the Midway”. After seven games, the Bears are a top-15 defense in points allowed (14th), total yards (seventh), passing yards (ninth) and rushing yards (11th) per game.

The 4-2 Saints have won their last four games and apparently stole a defense from somewhere. Nobody remembers that the Saints were crushed by New England in Week 2, lost by 10 to the Vikes in Week 1 and allowed the Lions to score 38 points on them in Week 6. The Saints wins were over Miami, Carolina, Detroit and the Rodgers-less Packers. We love New Orleans response to losing its first two games but near double digits is rich to lay a resurgent Bears’ squad with much better offensive upside than advertised and with a pretty damn good defense. The mood surrounding the team is different too and it’s all positive. Play: Chicago +9 (No bets). 

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WASHINGTON +120 over Dallas

4:25 PM EST. The 3-3 Cowboys ended their two-game losing streak by taking the winless 49ers seriously and are 2-1 on the road. The 3-3 Redskins just lost on Monday night. Both teams are 3½-games behind the Eagles in the NFC East. After losing two high-point shootouts at home, the Cowboys applied a beat down to the 49ers to get back on track. There is nothing wrong with the ‘Boys offense that scored at least 28 points in each of the last four games. There is plenty wrong with the secondary that folds whenever facing an above average quarterback. The Ezekiel Elliott saga continues but he's been cleared to play for at least this week. Even if he does miss games, the Cowboys are likely okay on offense with Dak Prescott on pace to throw for 37 touchdowns and run for eight scores.

The Redskins fall to 0-2 against the division but at least the passing effort improved in recent weeks. Losing OC Sean McVay looked like a major problem in the first weeks of the season, but Kirk Cousins is back to form. The same cannot be said for the running game that only seems to decline every week. Cousins has thrown for over 300 yards in the three of the last four games and scored a total of 11 touchdowns over that span. So, from a betting standpoint and in sticking to our philosophies, there is only one play here and that would the home team for several reasons. 1). The Redskins didn’t impress in their Monday night loss to the Eagles so their stock is low after a high profile game. 2). The Redskins are playing on a short week, which is an angle the market likes to bet against. 3). The line of -2½ is generally a favorite line but we’re pretty sure that line will drop before games time. There are only two late afternoon games today, thus this one will generate great interest. 4). The Cowboys crushed the 49ers and this is the overreaction to both that and the ‘Skins losing on Monday. Washington outright gets our call.     

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DETROIT +127 over Pittsburgh

8:30 PM EST. The Lions are 3-3 after seeing some of that late game luck last season come back and haunt them here in 2017. Detroit could easily be 5-1 after a pair of heartbreaking home losses to the Panthers and Falcons by a combined seven points. Despite their .500 record, the Lions are quietly sporting a seventh ranked DVOA defense (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average) with great success covering number one wide receivers (5th) which will serve them well with one of the best in Antonio Brown coming to town this week. The Lions defense has performed well while facing the 10th toughest schedule according to Football Outsiders. Detroit is not a popular public team and rarely are they featured in prime time outside of Thanksgiving so this is a big Sunday night game against a high profile opponent. The Lions should be rested and ready and while we aren’t always a fan of teams coming off a bye, Detroit is 5-0 against the spread its last five in this spot.

There is no denying the Steelers are on a roll at 5-2 after being left for dead just three weeks ago in the midst of a blowout home loss to the Jaguars. Pittsburgh rallied the wagons around struggling star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and dethroned the undefeated Chiefs in Kansas City.  They then followed that up with a dominating 29-14 win over the division rival Bengals as a small home favorite in what many in the market thought would be a letdown game. After having their stock hit rock bottom, the Steelers’ price is now soaring again so it’s time to sell. While Pittsburgh is made up of superstar players, this is a squad that doesn’t always come together to be better than the sum of its parts.  The Steelers' lockers room is full of malcontents, miscreants and divas from the aforementioned Brown to the often suspended Le'Veon Bell and Martavius Bryant. The latter will be benched for the Sunday nighter because he is unhappy with his role in the offense and was critical of his place in the organization. Pittsburgh is a team that has proven it can be very good or very bad and we’ve seen both sides this season. After a huge win in KC and a bitter division matchup last Sunday, we wonder if the Steelers will bother to get up for a much less meaningful game on the road against an NFC opponent and we’re not coming off our stand just yet that the Steelers are all on the same page. Talent wise, man for man, Pittsburgh might be the best in the business but this team is full of individuals that do not show up half the time. Give the ball to Le’Veon Bell 20 times and use play action and Pittsburgh would be near impossible to stop. Throw in its great defensive players and they would the odds on favorite to win it all. However, we know better than to put a lot of trust in a bunch of individual, weed smoking players that care more about how they individually perform than they do the result. Play: Detroit +127 (No bets).

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