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Posted at 12:45 PM EST.

8:30 PM EST. The Dolphins are quietly 4-2 after a 31-28 home win over the Jets but there might not be a more deceiving record in the NFL. Make no mistake, the Fish are an awful football team and the numbers back it up. Miami is 28th in total DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average) at -25.5%. That’s keeping company with the likes of the Bears, Cardinals, and 49ers, all teams nobody is gushing over this week like they are the Dolphins. The Fish don’t do anything well either, as a further breakdown shows their offense is 29th in DVOA, the defense is 22nd. All four of Miami’s wins have come by less than a touchdown against some very weak competition, as the Dolphins have played the 24th easiest schedule so far this season. The road ahead is rocky for the Fish, as they are predicted to face the second toughest schedule the rest of the way. Quarterback Jay Cutler is out for the Dolphins but it doesn’t really matter who is under center, as they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Fish can’t run the ball, ranking 28th in adjusted line yards and they’ve been stuffed at the line 28% of the time, which is good for 30th of 32 teams. Finally, the Dolphins have been on the fortunate end of some very poor field goal kicking, as opposing kickers are just 5 for 12 against them this season. For a team that wins so many close games, a big time correction is coming and it’s not to the good.

For all the flack the Ravens have taken this season for their inconsistency, the one consistency has been a very good defense. This is still an elite defensive unit in the NFL that ranks fifth in total defensive DVOA while the special teams are also fantastic, ranking second only to the Lions. The Ravens market value is at a season-low after losing four of their last five games. Quarterback Joe Flacco and the offense have taken the brunt of the criticism and they should but the reality is that Baltimore is probably better than its 3-4 record would indicate. The Ravens have some forgivable losses this season. They were blown out by the Jaguars in London but we put little stock in what happens across the pond. Rather than get a bye like every other team that’s played overseas, the Ravens were put in a very bad spot against the Steelers just a week later. Finally, their loss to the Bears came after a lost fumble in overtime, thus, if the ball bounces its way maybe Baltimore wins that game. Last week the late money came in on the Ravens as they traveled to Minnesota and we responded accordingly by removing them from our board. That steam would suggest that many in the market were left to rip up their tickets after an eight-point loss to the Vikings, making it very hard to come back on Baltimore this week.

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