Today's Free Picks for
Posted Friday at 1:00 PM EST.
1:00 PM EST. So much for the Jets’ commitment to losing, as Gang Green comes into Week 5 on a two-game winning streak. While the wins might be nice for their fans, we’re not going to overreact to wins against the Dolphins, who don’t look too interested in football these days or a jetlagged Jaguars team coming off a trip to London. Inexplicably, the Jets allowed the Jags back in it early in the fourth quarter with some extremely questionable play calling that set up a Jags TD and the tying field goal. Sure the Jets ended up winning in overtime but bonehead play calling from head coach Todd Bowles almost cost his team the game. A win over an up and coming Jags team seems to be holding weight in the market, as it appears the Jets will have it easier this week at Cleveland.
At 0-4 it looks like the same old Browns. Getting crushed at home 31-7 by the Bengals last Sunday did nothing to excite the market about their prospects, but despite the poor start, there have been some bright spots for the Brownies. They competed and covered against the Steelers in Week 1 in losing a close 21-18 decision. In Week 3 after going down 28-14 at halftime on the road in Indy, the Browns rallied and while they lost 31-28, had a couple of bounces gone their way, they could’ve been 2-2 instead of wearing the collar. Over the last two years, the Browns have made no friends in this market with just two covers in their last 11 homes games. Their astock continues to drop but this is teh right time tio step in on them.
These two teams met last October in Cleveland under similar circumstances with the Brownies winless and the Jets having a couple of victories under their belts. Last season Gang Green was a small -2½ point road favorite and needed to overcome a 13-point deficit in the second half to win the game 31-28. This year, with their value plummeting, the Brownies opened as a small favorite at home at First-Energy Stadium and the market pounced quickly moving this game to a pick ‘em. The New York Jets cannot be evenly priced on the road against any team in this league because home field is worth something. The Brownies have the better personnel and let’s not dismiss that the oddsmakers had them favored in Indianapolis two weeks ago and just a three-point dog at home to Cinci last week. This line is therefore based on luck-driven results, which in turn provides us with this outstanding opportunity.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
CLEVELAND -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)