Today's Free Picks for
Posted Friday at 1:15 PM EST
1:00 PM EST. If you listen to any of our podcasts, we keep preaching and insisting that nobody can predict the outcome of games. Our mantra is to play value and react to what the market is overreacting to. All of that comes into play here, as the Jaguars have two blowout wins with last week’s 44-7 victory over Baltimore resonating the loudest. That 9:30 AM EST start last week assures us that the market was watching. Anyone that bet Baltimore had to feel disgusted 10 minutes in. We warned you about betting games that take place overseas and also pointed out that it was Jacksonville’s fourth year in a row traveling to London while it was Baltimore’s first time ever. We are not putting any weight in Jacksonville catching the Ravens flat or any weight in Jacksonville defeating Tom Savage. When Jacksonville hosted Tennessee in Week 2, the Jags were buried by 21 points and now they’re favored on the road because the market has responded to their two loud victories. Don’t follow suit. The Jags still have an error prone, unreliable QB that never wins a game he’s expected to. Before last week, Bortles had thrown two touchdowns and two interceptions. Seriously, the last time Jacksonville was favored on the road was back in 2011.
Miami was expected to be the next team to cut a notch in their holster as the latest team to slap the Jets around. In their first two games, New York had been outscored 66-32 and had the look of a team capable of going 0-16 until the Dolphins came to MetLife Stadium. Of their 11 drives prior to a garbage-time touchdown that prevented a shutout as time expired, the first seven ended in punts and the last four featured two interceptions and two turnovers on downs. Of their eight drives prior to the fourth quarter, none of them lasted more than six plays and four of them were three-and-outs. In eight drives, Jay Cutler managed three first downs. Miami was flat after a big win against the Bolts the week prior and after being displaced because of Hurricane Irma. Jacksonville could easily suffer a similar fate.
You see, Jacksonville is coming back from a trip overseas so they, too, were somewhat displaced. Last year after returning from a game overseas, the Jags had a bye week. In fact, they have played overseas four years in a row and had a bye week afterwards every time except this year. We tried to find an example of a team or two coming back from England and playing the following week but were unable to. We may have missed it but from our research, we were not able to find one team that did not have a bye the week after playing overseas. This now becomes unchartered territory for an already overvalued Jacksonville squad.
The Jets could also be better than advertised. They are 0-2 on the road with losses to Buffalo and Oakland but they’re 1-0 at home with that aforementioned dominating win over the Fish. By the way, Denver also lost in Buffalo. Perhaps the Jags come in here and win again but the more likely scenario is that they suffer an overseas hangover and are just as flat as Miami was last week. Even if the Jags aren’t flat (very unlikely), they do not warrant being road chalk. If you bet on Jacksonville here, you are playing into all the things we urge you not to play into (overreactions, market perceptions, etc). It’s a bad bet that likely won’t turn out well. Jets outright.
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N.Y. JETS +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)