Today's Free Picks for
Posted Sunday at 9:00 AM EST
0-3 vs 1-2 here. These two teams have one win between them in six tries and that lone victory was by the Cardinals in OT against the Colts in a game the Cardinals trailed in for 59½ minutes. The Cardinals have now taken to throwing to Larry Fitzgerald on every play since David Johnson left. Frankly, we have no idea why the Cardinals are getting so much respect in both the market and media. This is an aging and bad football team that played sloppy and poorly all of last season and well into the first month this year. They were torched in Detroit, they should’ve lost to the Colts and after a quick strike against Dallas on Monday night to take a 7-0 lead, they were outscored 28-10 the rest of the way. We keep hearing how good both Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer are but we see Arians as a brain dead coach that has no clue what he’s doing out there in terms of using his timeouts and challenges smartly. Meanwhile, Palmer is old and busted up. Yeah, he throws for 300 regularly but a lot of it is garbage time yards or when it means jack. There is a big difference between throwing a 20-yard completion in the fourth quarter with the game tied and throwing a 20-yard completion when you’re down 17 points with five minutes left. From the start of last year to the first three games of this year, we have seen absolutely nothing that warrants getting behind the Cardinals as the chalk.
San Fran is 0-3 and the market doesn’t like to get behind winless teams. Win or lose here, we know 100% that we are going with the best of it, meaning we’re taking back inflated points because the 49ers have been so bad for so long. However, this is a team that is finally moving in the right direction and that has a lot of nice pieces. The 49ers have played Carolina, Seattle and the Rams and could have won two of those games. A three-point loss in Seattle and a 2-point loss to the rejuvenated Rams is nothing to hang one’s head over. The 49ers 23-3 season opening loss to Carolina was a misleading score, as turnovers led directly to 14 Carolina points. San Fran held Cam Newton to 193 yards in the air. One also has to consider that the opening day loss was the first game under the new regime. Kyle Shanahan and new GM John Lynch each got six-year contracts to oversee a massive rebuilding job. With three games under their belt and just missing in the last two, these 49ers can match everything the overrated Cardinals can do and then some. It’s also worth noting that the 49ers have had three extra days to prepare for this one. The familiarity on a short week does not ease a difficult preparation for the Cardinals. We should be looking to fade Arizona whenever reasonable, and when some of the conditions we're seeking are met here. This is a bad football team laying weight to a team that is looking better with each passing week and that looks ready to pop. San Fran gets its first win of the year and in turn the market will be jumping off the Cards next week. That will be a week too late.
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San Francisco +6½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)