Today's Free Picks for
Posted Friday at 12:45 PM EST
1:00 PM EST. Did you see how the Patriots responded last week after getting humiliated by the Chiefs the week prior? After losing to K.C. in Week 1, the media and market was screaming that the Patriots dynasty was coming to an end and that Tom Brady is getting old. Boy oh boy did the Pats put that talk to rest by going into New Orleans and hanging up 36 points on the Saints in an easy 16-point win. Since the Patriots are the biggest brand in the NFL, the biggest over and under-reactions occur on them every single week and this week is no exception. Forget about Week 1. Tom Brady led the league with 447 yards and three touchdowns in New Orleans.
Kansas City used a great running attack with great defense to put away the Patriots in Week 1. How easily that is forgotten. Houston can use a similar approach, as its defense is rock solid too and can win games on its own. The Texans also have a QB that can run and that brings an entirely different dynamic that NFL defenses have to deal with. Deshaun Watson also brings enthusiasm and hope to an offense that was and has been stale for years.
That brings us to a relevant metric that is called Adjusted Line Yards. Adjusted Line Yards is the rating system for offensive and defensive lines. These are measures of running plays, quarterback sacks and hurries and it also takes into consideration down and distance. The defensive numbers don't measure just the defensive line, but the whole front seven against the run. It may surprise you to learn that of the 32 teams in the NFL, New England ranks dead last in this metric, which reveals how vulnerable both lines are. Just above New England is Jacksonville, Atlanta, New Orleans and Washington but the only thing the media wants to talk about is how Tom Brady and the Patriots whacked New Orleans. Incidentally, the Saints are a putrid squad that can’t stop the marching band. So, while the public and media drool all over the Patriots this week, we continue to see weaknesses galore on this perceived powerhouse. There is also a different feeling in the Texans locker room that started last week in Cincinnati when Deshaun Watson led them to a road victory with a 50-yard TD run. We now are being offered some crazy inflated points here in a game that may not turn out as easy as the media is saying it will be. The Pats a lock? Uh-uh, as his one could be scary close and we would not be surprised to see the unthinkable happen. Believe it or not.
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Houston +14 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)