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Survivor Picks - Week 3

Our Survivor picks this year will be twofold. We’ll usually recommend two choices every week, a safe one and a not so safe one. The problem with playing the popular pick or the biggest point-spread favorite is that when that team loses, you go down with a high percentage of the pool and if they keep on winning all year, the pool will be split several ways. A mix of both and avoiding potential upsets is not a bad strategy either. One of our cardinal rules is to never play road teams because big road favs get beat too often and when one inevitably goes down, it will knock out a good percentage of participants and you don’t want to be one of them.

Week 1 safe pick – Buffalo √   ----    Week 1 not so safe pick – Minnesota √

Week 2 safe pick - Oakland √   ----   Week 1 not so safe pick – Oakland √

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Week 3 safe pick – Green Bay over Cincinnati

Well, this week is interesting to be sure. There were virtually no upsets last week to speak of and therefore almost no Survivor players got knocked out. This week there figures to be some upsets, thus the safe pick that most will use is obviously New England. We’re in the gambling business so we’re going to avoid New England here and hope that the unthinkable happens and knocks out over 50% of the pool. Maybe, just maybe, Houston's very good defense makes life hell for Tom Brady. NE is very banged up and could get caught complacent here as a big fav. Remember, the Chiefs ran it down NE's throat and then their D did the rest. A similar game plan that is well executed and perhaps Houston can do the same. The Saints are so bad that they made New England look great again. Houston also has had 10 days to prepare and one cannot dismiss how difficult it is to prep for a QB that can run. Houston’s Deshaun Watson can run and now has a victory under his belt. New England looks like the easiest choice this week but we’re going to go to the next biggest favorite because Green Bay is coming off a bad loss so complacency is not in the cards. Green Bay at home has more appeal to us for the simple fact that a Houston victory, as unlikely as it is, knocks out a high percentage of the pool.  

 

Week 3 not so safe pick - Tennessee over Seattle

 

There are 9 road favs this week and we have mentioned before that we do not play road chalk in Survivor Pools because they lose too often. Therefore Miami and Pittsburgh are both off limits. Philly and Carolina are both at home and they’re in the 6-point favorite range but they’re playing division rivals that are both 0-2. Not a good scenario to be backing either favorite. We’re therefore skipping over that pair and will take an AFC team to beat an NFC team. Tennessee is at home and has everything they need to take that next step. They have a QB, they have strong lines on both sides of the ball, they play good defense and they have playmakers while the 1-1 Seahawks have a horrible offensive line and their defense is spending way too much time on the field. The Titans have no excuses here.

 

Week 3 Survivor picks are Green Bay and Tennessee.

 

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