Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:35 PM EST.
8:30 PM EST. We’re going to sit out betting one side or the other because we’re not seeing an edge and we don’t like where the number is settling. Giants opened at a -4½ point choice before the market got a hold of it early and bet it down to -3. Over the past 24 hours or so, it hasn’t come off of -3 but now (at the time of this writing), you’ll have to pay extra vigor to back the Giants spotting 3 and that’s something we can’t get behind, at least for now. That number may increase more if Odell Beckham Jr gets the go ahead but we’re anticipating he won’t play tonight because the reports are that he’s just 3+ weeks into a 6-8 week recovery. Even if he does play, it’ll be for the purpose of being a decoy. Odell Beckham Jr wants to play but he’s not ready to.
That leaves Eli Manning without a running game and without a receiver he can rely heavily on. That’s a problem because Eli Manning is among the worst QB’s in the game. It’s time to tell the truth about Eli Manning. He gets way too much credit because he’s football royalty. Manning can’t make plays with his legs. Every Giants drive looks the same. There is nobody to hand the ball to so Eli goes underneath for two or three yards or throws into double coverage. The Giants may drive down field from time to time because of a pass interference call or a missed tackle but more often than not, they’ll go three and out or six and out. Furthermore, time of possession tells a story too. Green Bay, Dallas, Raiders and Philly were four of the top five time of possession leaders last season because all have QB’s that can extend plays. By contrast, the four worst time of possession teams last year were San Francisco, Chicago, Cleveland and you guessed it, the New York football Giants. There is a big correlation between lousy QB’s and weak time of possession numbers and the Giants with Eli Manning at QB absolutely belong at the bottom of the league. Eli Manning can’t extend drives and if you saw what Denver’s offense did to Dallas yesterday, you had better be very mindful that Eli couldn’t move five yards against Dallas last week. So, why not play Detroit tonight getting points? Because the Giants defense is GREAT.
The G-Men will win games this year because of their defense. This is a healthy, talented, quick defense that was all over everything that the ‘Boys were trying to do in Week 1. Eventually, Dallas would go on to win, 19-3 but Detroit’s offense is a fraction of what Dallas’ offense is capable of. Another reason we can’t get behind the Lions is because they struggled against Arizona in their season opener in Detroit and now they’ll have to hit the road. If you watched Arizona play yesterday and didn’t puke, then you have a stronger stomach than most. Detroit will not be able to sustain drives against the Giants great defense on the road like they did against Arizona. The 35-points that the Lions put up last week is nothing but fool’s gold. Thus, we have some choices here. First, we’re not comfortable spotting points with a Giants offense that can’t move five yards. Secondly, we’re not interested in taking the Lions on the road against what just might be the best defense in the league.
We rarely play totals mainly because we find much better value on sides but from time to time, we’ll step in on a total when it’s called for. Arizona and Detroit went over the total of 48 in Week 1 while Dallas and New York went way under the total of 46. This number is a mere four points lower than a game involving the Cowboys, in Dallas, no less and just six points lower than Arizona at Detroit. Unless there are a bunch of turnovers in scoring areas on the field, this total is likely to stay well under the number from start to finish and so playing it under the number is where all the value lies on this Monday nighter.
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Detroit/N.Y. GIANTS under 42 -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)