Today's Free Picks for
Posted Friday at 2:15 PM EST.
4:05 PM EST. If you went to bed early and checked the box score on the Changers 24-21 loss to the Broncos, you might be disappointed that you missed a good game. Rest easy, you didn't. The Chargers were lifeless as the Broncos dictated the pace of play on both sides of the ball for almost 3½ quarters. The Bolts were down 24-7 going into the 4th quarter and one could say the Broncs let up a bit, which led to a big momentum shift before the Broncs held on for dear life. L.A. had a chance to tie it on the final play of regulation when rookie kicker, Younghoe Koo made the tying kick only to have to retry because of the "freeze" time out called by the Broncos. The second attempt was blocked. The Chargers may have changed their location but the bizarre losses continue to pile up. Philip Rivers had a horrible day passing with just 192 yards in the air. The Bolts defense played soft coverage all game and ended up making Trevor Siemian look like Aaron Rodgers for three quarters.
The Chargers will play its first game at "home" in Los Angeles at the StubHub Center which is a 30,000 soccer seat stadium. No NFL team has averaged less than 50,000 people a game over the last five seasons but after leaving San Diego behind, it will be interesting to see how the Chargers will be received in L.A. Going from a +3 point pooch to a -4½ point favorite is a big swing for the Chargers on a short week after playing that late game in Denver on Monday night. We didn't see anything from San Diego in that game that would suggest a 7½-point swing is in order. In fact, we saw the same old underachieving group that hasn’t been able to put anyone away for two years plus.
With the season ending injury to quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins’ year appears to be over before it starts. With Hurricane Irma bearing down on the state of Florida, the debut of former Bears QB Jay Cutler has been delayed one week. The Cutler signing has been panned by fans far more than it’s been praised but is Cutler really that much of a step down from Tannehill? Last season Tannehill was ranked 25th in Defensive Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) which is a stat used to measure what would happen if a starting QB was replaced by a run of the mill passer. In 2016, it’s estimated that a generic replacement quarterback throwing in the same situations as Tannehill would have actually been 12 yards better. Basically, Tannehill was average at best last season so it would not have mattered who the Dolphins had taking snaps. The Dolphins have been out on the West Coast for over a week and the reports are that they’re intensely focused and ready to get going.
Lastly, the market has a propensity to get behind a team that has a game under their belt that is playing a team without one. The thinking is that the team that has played one game has shaken off the rust while the opposition has to go through that process. We see it otherwise. For one, Miami doesn’t come in bruised and battered like the Chargers will after playing their first game of the season, on a short week, no less. Secondly, Miami has a full game tape on the Chargers while San Diego has no tape to study on the Dolphins. Finally, L.A.’s improvements across all facets of the game were supposed to be on full display last week but it was not. Instead, we found out once again, that this is still not an outfit not suited to laying points. That's especially true given the program's history of close games and poor track record in the role of home non-division favorite.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
Miami +3½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)