Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST.
1:00 PM EST. It appears the Jets have hit rock bottom. That is, if you read the season previews, listen to sports talk radio or watch the talking heads on the NFL Network. Most expect Gang Green to lose 12-14 games this season but rarely is tanking that easy. Although it has to be clear to the 53-players and the coaching staff what the front office plans are, these are still pros that bring with them a bushel of pride. It's unlikely that the Jets lie down just so the organization has a chance to draft a franchise quarterback next spring.
On the surface, every move the Jets front office has made this off season has set head coach Todd Bowles and company up for failure and the odds makers think so too, as Bowles is the favorite to be the first one fired at many outfits. First, the Jets replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick with an older, crappier quarterback in Josh McCown. Now, Ryan was no good but McCown might be worse and he may just be bad enough to help the Jets brass complete their ultimate goal. The funny thing about the Jets is that they can't even tank right. While hindsight is 20/20, it was clear after this year's draft that the Jets could have got a nice bounty for their sixth overall pick with multiple teams willing to give up two first rounders in order to grab a quarterback. Instead, the Jets stood pat and took a safety. If the ultimate goal is to hoard picks and draft young players, their refusal to make a deal is all the more puzzling. Finally, the Jets tried to lure 37-year old receiver Steve Smith out of retirement in another WTF moment. General manager Mike MacCagnan doesn't know whether to shit or wind his watch.
It's taken some time but it looks like the Bills ownership brass has finally turned a corner when it comes to how they are going to run their football operations. After the Rex Ryan disaster, the Pegula's cleaned house and have handed the reigns to former Panthers' defensive coordinator Sean McDermott. On the field, under Ryan, the Bills were a reflection of their former boss, undisciplined, obnoxious and disrespectful. McDermott is everything Ryan is not. A change in attitude will go a long way in Buffalo and McDermott is a total pro that is unlikely to embarrass the city or the team. For the first time since the ownership change in 2014, the Bills' coach and general manager will be on the same page, as they hired former Carolina assistant GM Brandon Beane, who has a six-year working relationship with McDermott. The Bills have playmakers on both sides of the ball and it will be interesting to see what they can do under better direction instead of being led on to the field by a total buffoon.
From the outside, if not for the Jets, the Bills would appear to be the most dysfunctional franchise in the AFC East and it’s a rare day that a team perceived as being this bad is nearly a double-digit favorite. If the market perception is that these are both bottom-four clubs, the points then become very appealing. Can Gang Green really be this bad to be taking back this many points? The answer is probably not but for this opener in Buffalo, they likely will be, as we trust the odds makers more than we trust the market. We’ve heard more than once from “so-called sharps” that they haven't seen an opening week number this bad in 20 years but sometimes the line dictates the play and this is one of those times.
As value players, the value here would appear to be all Jets. We get that but recognizing a “curious number” is also a big part of our criteria and this number is just so enticing that it’s screaming out to us to swallow the points and that’s precisely how we’ll play it.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
BUFFALO -8 -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)