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_{Posted at 9:30 AM EST}

Michigan +242 over WISCONSIN

12:00 PM EST. No Big Ten team has been ranked in the committee's top four all season so its best hope is an undefeated Power 5 conference champion in Wisconsin but there is a price to pay for playing such a weak schedule and the Badgers are very likely going to pay that price here. Seriously, do we really know how good this Badgers team is or isn’t? What is Wisky’s best win this year? Over 6-4 Iowa? Northwestern? Purdue? Pick any one because it really doesn’t matter. Wisconsin’s schedule ranks the worst among Power-5 teams and they weren’t blowing away teams. Nine, eight and 14-point wins over Northwestern, Purdue and Illinois respectively are weak results. If Michigan and Wisconsin switched schedules, we’d probably be discussing an undefeated Wolverines squad. Wisconsin favored by this much over Michigan is absurd.  

 Most of the media talk we've heard surrounding the Badgers this week centers around what a consistent machine the Wisconsin program has become. Wisconsin has never won by out-recruiting the rest of the Big Ten, which means the coaching has to be excellent. There seems to be a general assumption that it is, but while we think Paul Chryst is one of the best pro-style play-callers of his generation, anointing him even a basic success as a head coach is premature. Chryst posted a .500 record at a solid Pitt program before being called home to Madison but it's important to remember that it's still just two+ years with players that another staff recruited. The Badgers also have a third defensive boss in three years and while the last guy had coordinated defenses at Boise State, Southern California, Tennessee and Washington, the new guy has coordinated exactly never until this year and he’s faced nobody of any importance. The Badgers can join the elite this week with a win over Michigan but this is a different animal than the likes of Purdue, Maryland, Illinois, Nebraska, BYU, Indiana or any other of the marshmallows the Badgers have encountered. Wisconsin is not poised one bit to take that next step.

It's not Michigan's year but that's not the fault of a defense that has responded to the loss of 10 starters by fielding one of the nation's best units. It's the offense that's been broken and it’s taking time for that side of the ball to find its identity and play-calling rhythm, but it's coming. The Wolverines have scored 35, 33 and 35 points respectively over their last three weeks without breaking a sweat, as all three games weren’t close. Brandon Peters led scoring drives on his first three possessions after replacing an ineffective John O'Korn in a 35-14 win over Rutgers three weeks ago and hasn’t looked back since. The staff has gotten the passing game on track with Peters and in the meantime the defense is suffocating and the ground game punishing. The Wolverines are not done improving and we'd suggest that Jim Harbaugh has some great bulletin board material to hang up in the locker room to get this bunch even more fired up than they already are. Most notably is the number 7, which is not only disrespectful, it’s insulting. Jim Harbaugh was embarrassed once already this year when his team was whacked by Penn State at Happy Valley. He’s not going to get embarrassed again. When the Wolverines’ bus pulls out of Madison, we’re confident that the Badgers will be out of the CFP discussion and we’ll have already cashed our ticket. Wolverines outright.

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