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_{Posted at 1:30 PM EST}

8:00 PM EST, Compared to year’s past, 2017 has been a tremendous fall from grace for the Hilltoppers. After two years of Conference USA supremacy as back-to-back champions, Western Kentucky is flirting with the possibility of missing a bowl game in 2017. The Hilltoppers won a combined total of 23 games in the previous two seasons while they lost just one game in conference play over that span. This year, the Hilltoppers have tripled that number already as they are 5-5 on the season and 3-3 in the Conference USA. Overall, WKU has hit a nasty skid, as they have lost their last three games by an average of 11.7 points. The typically prolific offense that WKU is known for has looked nothing close to what we have seen out of this bunch in years’ past. Such a shift was to be expected because the mastermind behind WKU’s dominance, former Head Coach Jeff Brohm, left town for a job at Purdue. Under the regime change, the Hilltoppers have taken a noticeable step back, which provides us with an opportunity, as we are not exposed to spotting lofty point spreads with the Hilltoppers anymore. WKU has covered just two times this year, mainly because the Hilltoppers were still inflicting premiums on its backers. We are now the beneficiaries of a market overreaction to WKU’s plight.

By contrast, the stock on Middle Tennessee State is on the rise because they have won their last two outings while outscoring its opponents 65-24. However, beating down Charlotte and UTEP in Murfreesboro is not an impressive feat to revel at. The two teams combined have won just one game this year, epitomizing every bit of the word, cupcake. You know our take on teams that feast on the sweets and there couldn’t be a more prime time for a bellyache. Nevertheless, the combination of these two narratives has enticed action on the Blue Raiders. Steady steam has rolled in on MTSU from the get-go and now this spot looks especially good, as we can take back a price on the team that we’re suggesting has a better chance of winning.  “100 Miles of Hate” as it is known between the two franchises has been Western Kentucky’s show. The Hilltoppers have won the last two editions and while the trend is irrelevant from a statistical sense, it provides Western Kentucky with an intangible for this game. The Hilltoppers have an emotional edge and for the seniors on this team, this is their last hurrah at home before graduation. Beating a hated foe that they have fared well against and securing bowl eligibility in their final home game would serve as a fine feather in their cap. While Middle Tennessee State is known for its home field advantage in Murfreesboro but this isn’t home. MTSU will certainly need all four quarters to subdue an opponent poised to play its best game but for us, there is more than enough value in the price of this underdog to get on board.

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