Notre Dame @ MIAMI
#166 MIAMI +152 over Notre Dame

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +152 Bet365 +145 SportsInteraction +155 5DIMES +150

Posted at 10:45 AM EST

8:00 PM EST. We typically like to stay out of high-profile contests such as this one because the oddsmakers are very aware of the heavy action that will pour in and therefore the lines are that that much sharper or tighter. However, when there is value on the table we have to move in. For weeks, the discussion circulating Notre Dame football has been whether or not the Irish will get put into the College Football Playoff if they win out on the remainder of their schedule. Currently, the Irish sit at #3 in the present batch of College Football Playoff rankings with their sole defeat being a one-point loss at home when they hosted the top team in the land, The Bulldog Nation of Georgia. Against N.C. State, Notre Dame passed the test with flying colors, as they buried the Wolf Pack 35-10. Notre Dame won again last week against Wake as a 14½-point favorite and put up some single game records in the process in terms of total yardage. That resonates in the market but trust us when we tell you that Wake moved the ball at will on the Irish defense. Had three fumbles not landed in Notre Dame’s lap, we’d be discussing Wake’s upset over them. The point is that when the Irish are relevant to this extent, the premium to get behind them is amplified.

Despite a pedigree of excellence of their own, the Miami Hurricanes are an afterthought when it comes to being in the College Playoff rankings despite the fact they remain undefeated on the season. One can argue that the ‘Canes have been shown a lack of respect, as they are seventh in the aforementioned College Football Playoff poll behind four teams that have already lost at one point this season. We already mentioned Notre Dame, but the remaining three teams Clemson, Oklahoma, and TCU all balked in games they were favored to win. The two most significant scenarios were when Clemson was upset as a 24-point choice at Syracuse and when Oklahoma was stunned as a 31-point choice when they hosted Iowa State. TCU was also defeated by Iowa State as well despite being favored but the market had been aware of Iowa State’s prevalence at that point and thus, from an against-the-spread perspective, it was less of an upset.

Nevertheless, Miami must feel slighted sitting behind teams with such grizzly losses on their resume. This contest serves as an opportunity for Miami to throw its hat in the proverbial post-season ring. There is no reason why Mark Richt and company cannot do so. Despite the lack of faith from pollsters, the ‘Canes looked impressive in their most recent exploit when they trounced a then-ranked #13 Virginia Tech by a score of 28-10 as a two-point choice at home. But that result has fallen on deaf ears in the buildup to the next edition of the Catholics vs. the Convicts. However, we advise bettors to listen loud and clear, as this Miami team will enter this contest with a chip on its shoulder and with something to prove. A win against one of college football’s blue bloods on national television will garner the attention Miami feels it deserves. The Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the country. Miami is playing much tougher defense this year, but Notre Dame’s offense is really rolling, so it's hard to see a defensive battle here. Coaches, players and fans all agreed that once Miami survived Va Tech, it would be better off for having done so and they didn’t just survive it, they thrived. This looks like the game where that experience pays off and Miami’s stock soars afterward.

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Our Pick

#166 MIAMI +152 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.04)