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Posted at 10:50 AM EST

10:45 PM EST. What a difference a week makes. After doubling their win total with a huge 41-20 win over San Jose State, the talk in Provo is about how quickly the Cougars can turn it around citing this week’s opponent in Fresno State as the standard in that category. With the win last week, BYU left the door open for a shot at a bowl game if it wins out but asking for a second straight win for this team is a stretch to be sure. Aside from last week against a SJSU squad that can’t stop the marching band, the Cougars offense has been near nonexistent. BYU put up just 17 against one of the worst defenses in the country at ECU two weeks ago and combined for just 17 points in its two prior games to that. Against teams with a winning record, the Cougars have been a low percentage play by failing to cover in their last five attempts against winning opposition.

Fresno State’s turnaround from a 1-11 season in 2016 to its 5-3 record so far this season has been impressive, especially when you consider two of the Bulldogs three losses came against powerhouses Washington and Alabama. Fresno State went hard at the Crimson Tide and that performance left an impression on us. The Bulldogs had covered all seven of their games coming into last Saturday’s home game with UNLV where they went from playing plucky underdog to three touchdown chalk. We were weary last week that the Bulldogs money train may have left the station after huge wins over New Mexico, and SDSU. With the market all aboard last week, the Bulldogs laid an egg in and lost outright to UNLV. Week to week overreactions are most prominent in college football and after fading the Bulldogs when their stock was at its highest, we are now looking back their way to rebound here. What would this line have been if Fresno State took care of business last week? Even with that blip on the radar, the Bulldogs have been very consistent on both sides of the ball this season. Fresno State quarterback Marcus McMaryion had gone 98 pass attempts without an interception and the Bulldogs are second in the country in tackles for a loss allowed but it’s this team’s defense that is the real star of the show. The Bulldogs are 16th in the country in total yards allowed (308.3) and in four home games this season, FSU has allowed 48 total points (just 12 points per game).

After last week’s results we can understand how taking back double digits with a seemingly reinvigorated Cougars team might be appealing but in the week to week world of college football we are always looking for over and under reactions. BYU covered a huge number at home while Fresno State was embarrassed just as the market was taking notice. That the total in this game is just 48 (which is low by college standards), BYU covering this large spread looks even more probable. Despite the poor results this season the Cougars are still a more well-known commodity than the Bulldogs which makes them easier to back especially for the casual fans who are now paying attention, as the Bowl season approaches. We like what Fresno State brings to the table and expect them to rebound here. One of the best spots to back a double digit favorite is the week after that favorite lost outright as a double digit favorite. Only this week, those double digits come down from 21½ (last week) to 11½ this week. That's our prompt to step in.

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