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Posted at 12:50 PM EST 

8:00 PM EST. In a ghastly matchup fitting for Halloween Night, the MAC sends two of its worst teams out to scare the masses. Let’s start with Bowling Green, who comes in at 1-7 after a 48-17 loss to Northern Illinois 10 days ago. On paper we can understand the appeal in the favorite in this matchup. They’ve won four straight against the Golden Flashes while outscoring Kent State 161-49 in those games. Last season, BGU blasted K-State 42-7 as 2½-point home dog and shutout the Flashes 48-0 in 2015. That kind of recency bias holds weight in this market but the trends are irrelevant.

You see, there is little to revel at with Bowling Green. The Falcons have just one win this year and that came against an opponent that Kent State also defeated, Miami Ohio. Against the Redhawks the Falcons won by eight points as a 17-point pup, while the Golden Flashes won by a 17-14 score as an 8.5-point pup. Perhaps BGU’s larger margin of victory as a heavier underdog is another selling point. However, that scenario reflects more poorly on Miami Ohio than it does bolster Bowling Green’s credibility. What is relevant is that Bowling Green lost to FCS opponent South Dakota at home in the one game it was favored in this year. As a whole, the Falcons have been nothing short of a dumpster fire since former Head Coach Dino Babers left town. Since the start of the 2016 season, BGSU has won just five games. The culture has dramatically changed in Bowling Green and the Falcons are now a team that lacks the quality to warrant any form of superlatives.

In terms of total defense, the Falcons own one of the worst defensive units in America (526.5 YPG), rushing yards (261.2 YPG), and points allowed (37.8 PPG). The Falcons sit ranked at 120th or worse nationally in these respective departments. In addition, the Falcons are also ranked 111th nationally against the pass (265.2 YPG). If the Falcons defense performs in such a way against Kent State, the Golden Flashes will not have to be concerned with doing any heavy lifting, as the opportunities to generate offense will come to them naturally.

We’re not going to sugar-coat this and attempt to convince anyone that the Flashes are better than their record suggests because they’re not but the Falcons might be worse. Kent State is sick of getting crushed by this program and now has an opportunity to get some pride back. The Flashes have already played Clemson and Louisville and even though they were whacked, it’s going to serve them well here against a team that has played an easier schedule and has looked worse. Bowling Green favored on the road is incorrect. Ken State outright.  

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