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Posted at 10:00 AM EST

3:00 PM EST. If you read the headlines in Provo, you’d think the sky is falling. Their beloved BYU Cougars are 1-7 and averaging just 12 points per game on offense this season. The Cougars were called “historically bad” in the local paper with the use of a real picture from this past weekend of a broke down semi-truck carrying the teams’ equipment as a cute way to sum up BYU’s season. Expectations were high last week when the Cougs got the chance to face off with East Carolina, a team that sports the worst defense in FBS but BYU got whacked 33-17 in a game that wasn’t even that close. It’s been doom and gloom all season for the Cougars, as the only game they’ve won was in Week 1 when they defeated over Portland State 20-6 but failing to cover as a -35 point favorite. That started a trend that has now dragged on for their entire 2017 campaign. That’s right, the Cougars have not covered a spread in eight tries this season. Hell, it took them four games to score 39 total points so you can believe that was the last time that BYU was a double-digit favorite. That's why this week’s spread against San Jose State stinks to high heaven.

As bad as it sounds for BYU, the Spartans of San Jose State have been just as dreadful. SJSU is 123rd in red zone success this season scoring on just 53.4% of trips inside the 20. Defensively, the Spartans have allowed more than 40 points and 500 yards per game on average in 2017. San Jose State has been outgained in every game this season but two, the first was Week 1 against cupcake Cal Poly and the second was in its last game, a 37-26 loss to Hawaii two weeks ago. We often like fading teams coming off a bye as they are often flat and sloppy and that is bad news for a Spartans team that has turned the ball over more than any other team in college football.

On paper, this might just look like a game between two of the worst offenses in the nation, with just two wins between them in 16 tries this season, and it is, but to the market, they see one team that is 3-4-1 against the spread and another that is 0-8. That BYU hasn’t cashed a ticket this season is almost impossible to imagine and now oddsmakers are asking the Cougars to cover double digits points when they’ve barely been able to score 11 points on a regular basis all year. That is going to be a hard bet for many to make. Also not lost in this market is the fact the Cougars have not beat an FBS team in over 300 days. The books set this game total at a low 46½. Combined with the spread, it means only one of these teams is likely to put up big points and BYU’s defense is the superior unit here by a wide, wide margin. Imagine swallowing this many points with a winless ATS squad. It’s the prudent play.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.