Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:30 AM EST
12:00 PM EST. The Red Raiders have been an economical choice for many in 2017, so seemingly this contest sets up Texas Tech backers to green up against their weakest FBS opponent year-to-date. Texas Tech has dominated this series as a whole. The Red Raiders have squared off with Kansas 17 times in series history and KU has won just one time. That win was over a decade ago. Last year, Tech ran buckshot on the Jayhawks, as they smashed Kansas by a score of 55-19. Though we are a full year removed from that affair, this market puts heavy influence on past results and usually end up ripping their tickets while we look for spots exactly like this one.
The Red Raiders got off to a 3-0 start and though they lost to Oklahoma State last week by a touchdown, they gained popularity and market cred be that they came in under a 10-point cushion. In a matter of two weeks, TT has swung 25 points from a significant home-pooch to an extensive road favorite.
Kansas is a step down in competitive quality compared to the Pokes and there is little question about that. The Jayhawks have now lost their third consecutive game and have yet to win a game this year against a FBS opponent. In their most recent exploit, the Jayhawks were defeated 56-34 at home by the West Virginia Mountaineers. Though the box score displays otherwise, KU actually hung around against WVU. The Jayhawks trailed by as much as 25 points against West Virginia but battled back to within eight of the Mountaineers in the late stages of the third quarter. In the final five minutes, WV scored two late touchdowns to secure the win and final tally. Like West Virginia, Texas Tech is a team of a similar profile. Texas Tech lives and dies by its offensive operations just like West Virginia. However, the Red Raiders are a bit of a one-trick pony. TT scores 42.2 points per game on average and boasts the third best passing attack in America but the Red Raiders are also one of the worst rushing teams in the land. TT’s defense also surrenders 309.8 passing yards per game (125th Nationally) and 30 points per game but that’s just fodder.
Another consistently lousy spot is that of a road favorite off a crushing defeat. Texas Tech hosted #15 Oklahoma State last week and traded punches with them for four quarters before falling by a TD. This sport has a rich history of teams in similar spots that came up flat the week after they played their hearts out in a game they wanted badly. We also love that the Red Raiders get another chance next week, as the travel to West Virginia to take on the #23rd ranked Mountaineers. Situationally speaking, spots don’t get much better than this one for an upset to occur and we have almost 16 beautiful points to work with.
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#374 KANSAS +14½ -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)