Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST
12:00 PM EST. Georgia’s stock continues to soar, as the #6 ranked Bulldogs are coming off a 41-0 shutout win at Tennessee. That head-turning victory came on the heels of a 31-3 rout of a Mississippi State team that waxed LSU. Mississippi State/Georgia was a hyped up (by the media) event that was supposed to be a classic SEC showdown but it was anything but. Georgia buried them from start to finish. Over the past two weeks against Tennessee and Miss St, the Dawgs buried that pair by a combined score of 76-3. Kirby Smart’s program is now 2-0 in SEC play and 5-0 overall.
Vanderbilt’s start to SEC play has been the polar opposite. The Commodores are 0-2 in conference play with back to back losses to both Florida and Alabama. Vandy was a 19½-point dog at home to the Crimson Tide but was shut out 59-0. Last week’s 38-24 loss at Florida does not tell the whole story, as the Commodore not only should have covered as a 9½-point pooch but they had their chances to win. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur has had a nice season with 985 passing yards, 11 touchdowns with just one pick.
Georgia was called a “lighter version of Alabama” by a Vanderbilt beat reporter this week and that’s fitting because they are priced like it. Now all that Georgia hype (and results) presents us with this outstanding opportunity because the Dawgs are not a lighter version of Alabama. In the SEC, there’s two classes, Alabama and everyone else -- end of story. However, this market is getting a little too caught up in Georgia’s dominance the past two weeks. While we’re very optimistic about Georgia’s future under Smart, the Dawgs look to be a year or two of quarterback development, offensive line recruiting and general depth-building away from becoming a legitimate top 10 team but the media is building the Dawgs up as a threat to Alabama. That’s ridiculous.
The real key here also involves Alabama and something we mentioned earlier in this writeup. In Week 4, Alabama went into Vandy and crushed the Commodores 59-0. The Crimson Tide was a 18½-point favorite in that game and now the Dawgs are favored in the same price range. That cannot be. We’ll now play against the market’s huge overreaction to Georgia pasting a couple of ripe to get beat opponents. The Commodores are a very good football team that should and likely will stay well within this range the entire game.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
#386 VANDERBILT +17½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)