Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:30 AM EST
3:00 PM EST. The stock in the Warhawks continues to rise, as they continue to win and cover. Typically, the Warhawks are not a team you find in a bowl game nor are winning seasons a regularity in their program. Though they are 2-2 on the year, they are clearly an atypical Louisiana-Monroe that could be on its way to bigger and better things in 2017. This is a team that rolled up its sleeves with Memphis on the road as a 27½-point pup and threatened to upset the Tigers in its own stead. This is also the same group that ended cross-state rivals UL-Lafayette’s reign of terror in the Battle of the Bayou Rivalry on the Ragin’ Cajuns own field two weeks ago. All of these events raise the stock in this outfit, setting up a true buy-low, sell-high scenario.
Texas State has lost their four fixtures overall. In their last two outings, the Bobcats have done so in rather grisly fashion. As a 13½-point pup, the Bobcats would fall at home in the renewal of the I-35 Rivalry Game against UTSA when they were rolled by a score of 44-14. In their follow-up a week ago at Wyoming, the Bobcats would get steamrolled as a 16½-point pooch when they were defeated 45-10. The average margin of defeat in those last two games was 30½ points, which is why this number has resonated loudly with us. On the year, this is the lowest number the Bobcats have been spotted and this is after they have lost four consecutive outings and been pummelled in their last two. That has red flags and alarms going off in our head.
The Warhawks are due for a correction and the oddsmmakers know it too. Though the price looks very friendly, it’s not. Don’t get trapped fading the Bobcats here. Though Monroe’s stock is high, it must be highlighted that this team gave up an average of 46½ points in its last two victories while scoring an average of 53½ points to earn those wins. Monroe’s offense is scoring at a pace that is unsustainable and given their defensive operations in those two contests, they are an off-night away from a sobering crash down to Earth. This is likely that night. Always be vigilant against "bad favorites”.
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#384 TEXAS STATE +6½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)