Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST
12:20 PM EST. Targeting overreactions is something we preach on a day-to-day basis. North Carolina State’s 27-21 win at Florida State as a 10½-point road pooch has creating one here. Florida State entered the 2017-18 season as a very popular choice to win the ACC and qualify for the College Football Playoff. Although Florida State lost its starting quarterback in its season opener when they were handled by Alabama by a score of 24-7, a presiding presumption was that the Seminoles vaunted defense combined with home cooking would have been able to get it done against the Wolfpack. After all, Florida State also had extensive time to prepare given the fact their September 9th contest with UL Monroe was postponed due to Hurricane Irma’s impacts and also given the fact they had a bye in the week in between. Instead, NC State marched in and won their third straight game further driving their stock.
Syracuse comes in off a 35-26 loss at LSU. The Orange would cover a lofty three-touchdown plus line but this did not seem to raise as many eyebrows as it normally would have, likely because LSU looked abysmal when Mississippi State routed the Bayou Bengals in the week previous. With ‘Cuse owning an outright loss at home as a 7½-point favorite against Middle Tennessee State and just one win against a FBS opponent (Central Michigan) on the year, Syracuse offers little appeal. When the one win against a FBS opponent came at home and the competition hails from a Group of Five conference, the outlook becomes even more grim considering NC State gets to play this one at home. North Carolina State has also won the last three in this series.
Generally speaking, Carter-Finley Stadium is known as one of the toughest places to play in all of college football. The Wolfpack fan base is one that is rabid. Though the Wolfpack may not have as prestigious or accomplished track records compared to some of their more illustrious colleagues, NC State supporters are diehards and have a knack for getting in visitors’ faces. Combining that with the fuel they’ll be fed off the Florida State win, it seems the Orange have a lot of trouble awaiting them in Raleigh. However, N.C. State has already lost a game at home this year that it was supposed to win. As a -7½-point choice, the Wolfpack were defeated by the South Carolina Gamecocks. Though State accumulated double what SC did in terms of offensive production, Cocky was able to get up to a two-touchdown lead.
Syracuse comes in here with an offense that scores 35 points per game and ranks 25th in passing yards per game (300 yards per game). Both teams are likely to leave their pass defenses at home, so this has all the makings of a shootout. Academically, taking the points when a touchdown or more is offered is a prudent move in contests of this variety. However, this can be easily thrown out the window if one elects to sip the N.C. State Kool-Aid thanks to their big win last week. Though Kool-Aid tastes good and causes a sugar rush, it also produces a crash if you drink too much. N.C. State is set-up to do just that in this spot.
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#121 Syracuse +14 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)