Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST
10:00 PM EST. We're extremely high on a Fresno State squad that has done some really nice things this year already that has gone essentially unnoticed but we are even more pessimistic about the new regime at Nevada than we were about the last one. If our reads are right, this is a quality favorite at home facing what might be one of the bottom-10 teams in the FBS. The usual difference in that scenario is easily more than 21 points. The end-around to capitalizing on the mismatch while ducking what is often a slow start by the favorite and avoiding asking a team to win too big is to wait and seek value during the game or at halftime but what don’t see that happening here.
You see, Fresno State was off last week after losing its last two by scores of 41-10 and 48-16. On paper, that looks awful but those two losses occurred against #1 Alabama and #6 Washington. Fresno State moved the chains all day against Alabama but knew that FG’s would do nothing so they were stopped on some fourth down attempts. They didn’t have as much in them against Washington but the step down in class here is one of mammoth proportions that this number does not reflect. We often say that there is a price to play for scheduling games against weak opponents but the opposite holds true also. There is a big reward for scheduling games against the best teams in the country and we’re strongly suggesting that Fresno State and its backers will reap those rewards here.
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#204 FRESNO ST -9½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)