Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST
3:30 PM EST. The Buffalo Bulls are 2-2 this season but more importantly, it is 4-0 against the spread and now that the market is jumping on, we’re jumping off. Bad favorites are teams that perform the role of favorite rarely, and unreliably. Expansion has overpopulated the bottom tier of the FBS, and consequently there are plenty of really poor teams occasionally asked to spot significant points these days, especially in the less recently stabilized conferences. While the MAC is considered to be more stabilized than say Conference USA or the Sun Belt, Buffalo is still an unestablished commodity that brings far too much risk.
The bad-favorite archetype is a program that hasn't won much at all the past several years, let alone posted winning seasons. Rarely favored to win, its players are accustomed to losing. These teams aren't good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough experience closing out games. Any victory is usually hard-earned. These are not the teams you want to ask to win, let alone by large margins. The Bulls fit this to a tee. Buffalo’s 34-31 win as 1½ -point chalk against Florida Atlantic was the Bulls' first turn laying points in an FBS game since 2015 and their first cover when favored in six tries. Now the number has gone up quite a bit more and frankly, it’s bordering on ludicrous. The Golden Flashes have already played Clemson and Louisville so playing the Bulls should appear in slow motion for them. Kent State getting 7½ at home to the Bulls is true value in a game they can absolutely win outright.
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#134 KENT STATE +7½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)