Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:15 AM EST
12:00 PM EST. We’re not going to discuss ECU much here because this wager has very little to do with them. We are always in the buy-low/sell high business and that especially holds true in the early kickoffs, as the market teases and parlays targeted games in an attempt to get a head start on the day and have some live tickets later. Of all the early games, South Florida’s stock is the highest and therefore, they become our fade target.
The Bulls treated weeknight viewers to a pair of nationally televised blowouts of Illinois and Temple the past two weeks, outgaining those foes by a whopping 650 yards. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is a special athlete, and there's plenty of offensive skill around him. This is a fast, physical, athletic roster, and all three phases are explosive and dangerous. However, USF is also self-destructive and we’re happy to be taking back an inflated priced against them on the road.
The Bulls' warts have been on display in all four games this season: too many penalties, boneheaded mistakes and discipline issues. The team often plays fast and hard but not smart, and the offense is prone to lulls and occasional wasted possessions. Charlie Strong inherited a ready-made team, but he doesn't have full control of it yet. The Bulls are dangerous to themselves and others, and while they'll explode and rout a few more teams this year, we aren't trusting them with our money.
That's largely because the Bulls are now a ranked commodity. Willie Taggart changed the offense to an up-tempo scheme that fit Flowers well in 2015, and the result was a 10-3 ATS record in a year in which USF went 8-5 for its first winning season in five years. Last year, Flowers took another step, as the offense averaged more than 500 yards per game and the Bulls broke out with an 11-2 season. The prices still hadn't quite caught up, and the ATS record was still strong despite slipping to 8-5. This year, the value has faded. There are lofty expectations, especially regarding the explosive talent on offense, and the gaudy blowouts on weeknight television are only fueling them. South Florida is now being asked to lay prices never before seen in program history, and while the expected athleticism has been on display, indications are that the maturity, discipline and consistency are sketchy enough to run from investing.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
#118 EAST CAROLINA +21 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)