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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
5:00 PM EST. The Battle of the Bayou has been a very one-sided affair recently. Though the all-time record is 28-24 in favor of UL Lafayette, the Ragin’ Cajuns have won eight of their last nine against the Warhawks of UL-Monroe. Such supremacy in a rivalry game can often fuel a heavy lean in this market, which is something we can take advantage of. Furthermore, UL Monroe has a very ominous historical track record. The Warhawks have been to just one bowl game since they arrived in the FBS in 1994. In their FBS history, Monroe has cracked the seven-win total just once. That came in 2012 when the Warhawks earned the aforementioned postseason bid to the Independence Bowl.
The Cajuns smashed Monroe on the road last year by a score of 30-3, so immediately this number looks very appealing to the unsuspecting. Lafayette looks too easy spotting less than a converted TD, which is also a red flag. The odds makers could have made the host a 7-point choice and not sway a single bet. We have discussed in the past the danger of playing favorites that are priced a hook under the key numbers of 7 and 3 and this is another example of that.
There are many reasons not to trust the Ragin’ Cajuns in this situation. UL-Lafayette’s defense is simply non-existent. This is a football team that gave up 66 points to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane has not scored as many points in a single game in five years. Most recently, Texas A&M was able to coast to a 45-21 win against ULL and the Aggies were in complete disarray after they collapsed at UCLA on Labor Day weekend. In fact, A&M had difficulties putting away Nicholls State at home as a 34½-point favorite in its follow-up to the UCLA debacle. The Aggies had an easier time hosting Lafayette, last Saturday. Overall, the Cajuns are 1-2 on the year with their sole win coming against FCS Southeastern Louisiana in their season opener at home. The victory was not easy, as UL-Lafayette escaped by a score of 51-48. It is also worth noting that Southeast Louisiana is 0-3 on the year.
Meanwhile, the Warhawks have shown that they can be a formidable threat. In their season opener at Memphis, Monroe would score 29 points against the Tigers and lose by a margin of 37-29 despite closing as a 27½-point dog. Despite Memphis having questionable defensive operations in its own right, this is a football team that just orchestrated a huge win at home against visiting UCLA. At the end of the day, The Cajuns defense is turning in some ugly performances and their offense won’t bring anything superior to what the Warhawks have already seen. The line says upset and ULL’s performances say the same.
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#399 UL-Monroe +6½ -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)