Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:15 AM EST.
8:00 PM EST. The number here is speaking to us and we’ve taken notice. Surveying the previous 10 meetings between the Bearcats and Redhawks, Miami has never been favored once. Now the Bearcats are not only the dog, but they’re taking back a rather appealing price considering they’ve been favored over Miami every game for a decade. The Redhawks have not been relevant since 2010 when they won 10 games. Since then, the Redhawks have been courted by mediocrity and even managed to slump to a winless record in 2013. By contrast, the Bearcats have put together four nine-win seasons over the same period. Perhaps most importantly from a betting standpoint, Cinci has won 11 straight in this series, which resonates in this market big time. That’s another useless trend that Cincinnati backers will eat up.
The "Battle for the Victory Bell" between Miami and Cincinnati is the longest-lasting collegiate football rivalry west of the Allegheny Mountains, first being played in 1888. It’s a big deal in this region and for the first time in a long time, Miami is the superior outfit. The RedHawks are 1-1 after losing to Marshall in Week 1 but subsequently defeating Austin Peay 31-10 last week. However, that loss to Marshall is not only misleading, it’s baffling too, as Miami dominated play from start to finish. The RedHawks outgained Marshall 429-267 and also held a big edge in time of possession.
What’s interesting is that Austin Peay also played Cincinnati so we have a common opponent here. At home, Cinci defeated Austin Peay 26-14 but what really sticks out is that the Governors rushed for 224 yards against the Bearcats while the Bearcats rushed for just 97 yards. Cinci did not compensate for that in the passing game either, as they threw for a mere 151 yards. Overall, the Governors would outgain the Bearcats, 313-287 while Miami (Ohio) had a much easier time with the Governors, beating them 31-10 and outgaining them 283-270.
While the Bearcats played Michigan last week and didn’t look awful in a 36-14 loss, Michigan was just coming off a big win over then #17 Florida and looked unfocused and/or disinterested. Still, when it counted most, the Wolverines put the Bearcats away.
The 11-game winning streak by Cincinnati is the longest such streak of this ancient rivalry, which dates back to 1888 but this year, Cinci will bring an offense that looks putrid. The Bearcats’ offense has basically been Mike Boone and a handful of bubble gum wrappers. Meanwhile Bearcats QB Hayden Moore has completed only 47.1 percent of his 68 pass attempts this season while averaging only four adjusted passing yards per attempt. Too many short passes and errant ones further down the field does not bode well here. Every weakness that the Bearcats possess, and there are plenty of them, play into the Redhawks strengths.
Opponents are running over the Bearcats and Miami likes to run. The Redhawks play a methodical game with a heavy emphasis on ball control and taking care of the rock while Cinci’s is searching for an identity with their game plans and play calling looking erratic as hell. What this market sees however, is a team that has dominated this series getting points but we’re strongly suggesting that it’s fool’s gold. Miami is poised to strike big and they know it.
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#124 MIAMI OH -5 -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)