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Posted at 10:15 AM EST.

3:30 PM EST. Situationally speaking, this scenario sets up perfectly to fade the Crimson Tide. First and foremost, the number presented is one that could be an errand to cover no matter how unbalanced the match-up may be. Secondly, the team laying the points is considered to be the gold standard of college football, meaning the Tide are overpriced every time they take the field. That doesn’t mean they should be faded every week because they will of course cover from time-to-time but picking the right spots can bring some profits and we trust this is one of those spots. Alabama comes in off a big win and even teams’ of the Tide’s flawless execution can be prone to letting down after a big preparation week in the first contest of the season. The nation’s top-ranked team in the polls cruised past what was forecasted to be a far more difficult test against #3 Florida State. Many analysts predicted that not only would Florida State cover the touchdown-plus spread but they would take a Seminole leap themselves and knock off the Tide in what was billed as a primetime spectacle. In what was built up to be a titanic clash, the game was all ‘Bama once the dust settled. Florida State would strike first and after that the Tide would close the door. The end result was Alabama’s defense did what it does best and that would be to dominate. The ‘Noles would not find the end zone again for the duration of the game and Alabama would continue onto score 24 unanswered points. The final analysis classes the contest outcome as a statement victory for the Tide against a widely-prognosticated College Football Playoff contender. You will now pay handsomely for that victory this week.  

Queue Fresno State, a team that won just one game in 2016 and that was not even against a FBS opponent. The Bulldogs are renowned for having a blue-collar approach to the game. They will play anyone, anywhere. Though they were likely scheduled as a tune-up game for the Tide, the Boys from the Valley do not regard themselves as a cupcake by any stretch. A 66-0 blowout win against Incarnate Word to open up their 2017 campaign reinforces the notion that Fresno State is looking to change the public perception of their program. At one time, Fresno State was in the mix for the Mountain West title and a frequenter of nine-win seasons. This is the same program that produced the likes of current Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, Packers wide receiver Davante Adams, and former Eagles running back Ryan Mathews, just to name a few but that’s just fodder. Fresno State is not our target, as they just happen to be running into our target here. For Alabama, Week 2 is more of a glorified practice. We know for sure we’re getting inflated points and we’re going to scoop them up especially when the total (53) is pretty damn close to the point-spread. In the Nick Saban era, the Tide are 0-6 ATS (with one game called early due to weather) in the game after the previous seven neutral-site openers. All but one of those games (a road date at Texas A&M in 2013) involved spreads of at least four touchdowns versus Group of 5 conference teams, just like this week's tilt with Fresno State.

For Alabama, Week 2 is more of a glorified practice. We know for sure we’re getting inflated points and we’re going to scoop them up especially when the total (53) is pretty damn close to the point-spread. In the Nick Saban era, the Tide are 0-6 ATS (with one game called early due to weather) in the game after the previous seven neutral-site openers. All but one of those games (a road date at Texas A&M in 2013) involved spreads of at least four touchdowns versus Group of 5 conference teams, just like this week's tilt with Fresno State.

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