Posted at 8:40 AM EST

7:30 PM EST. Situationally speaking, this is as good as it gets in terms of taking back points with a home dog and it falls into one of our best angles, not once but twice. The first angle is that the Nebraska Cornhuskers have moved into the polls for the first time since 2014. When that happens, the market takes notice, which results in an overreaction almost 100% of the time. The angle is to play against a team that hits the polls for the first time. The second angle is that we now have a ranked team spotting road points to an unranked opponent. When that occurs, inflated points are involved but it still gets better. You see, Nebraska is coming off its biggest win in a very long time last week when they, as an unranked home pooch, beat a ranked Oregon team. Not only was the ‘Huskers win an emotional one, it came right down to the final minute. It was also filled with intensity and played in front of 80,000 screaming fans on National TV. Asking the Cornhuskers to bring that same intensity this week would be unreasonable and they’re simply not that great to begin with.

Meanwhile, Northwestern is getting no positive press whatsoever after two unexplainable losses to open the year against Western Michigan and Illinois State. In reality, the Wildcats loss to Western Michigan was not so surprising and they only lost by a point. The following week, Northwestern shot themselves in the foot repeatedly in a two-point loss to Illinois State. Note that Northwestern's two losses were by a combined three points. In the meantime, the Wildcats incredibly stingy defense has surrendered just 44 points in three games combined, which included a 24-13 victory over Duke last week. Finally, Northwestern went into Lincoln last year as just a seven-point dog and proceeded to upset the ‘Huskers, 30-28. This year, with similar personnel on both squads, Nebraska goes on the road as a higher priced favorite than they were at home last year and it’s all based on market perception. This is an exceptionally strong situational spot for the dog. So much so that we’re calling the upset and will play Northwestern to win outright for one unit at +258 and for 1½ units at +7½ for a total risk of 2.65 units. 

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