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Posted at 9:00 AM EST.

First Round of NCAA Tournament  - Little Caesars Arena - Detroit, Michigan

3:10 PM EST. The Big East might not be what it once was, but that conference has quietly become one of the toughest in college hoops. This year, The Big East has two of its schools as #1 seeds in this tournament. With Xavier and Villanova on top, it can be easy to ignore a school like Butler, but do not sleep on the Bulldogs. The market might be down on Butler here because it lost six of its last nine to end the season, but Coach LaVall Jordan put his team through the ringer after a grinding schedule that ranks eighth-toughest in the nation according to KenPom. The Bulldogs are roughly average in terms of three-point attempt rate on both offense and defense and also play at about a neutral pace. That said, they have had some excellent wins and puzzling losses, having taken down Villanova and Ohio State while losing to Georgetown at home and St. John's but we can excuse a team for tough conference losses when they have such great wins. It shows an ability to play at a high level when it counts most. We can also not ignore that the analytics love the Bulldogs. KenPom ranks this edition of Butler basketball the 26th team in the nation, which is much higher than your typical #10 seed. The Bulldogs are a better team under the hood than schools like Miami, Texas A&M, Rhode Island and their opponents today in Arkansas. However, all of those teams are seeded higher than Butler, which makes the Bulldogs an attractive sleeper pick.

By comparison, the Razorbacks are ranked 36th in the country by KenPom, yet are seeded three spots higher than Butler, and that's not right. Arkansas is getting love in this game for a number of reasons including an 8-3 run to end the year that includes a win over ranked Auburn, but the Tigers are also totally inflated and over-seeded in this tournament. It was a down year for SEC basketball with mainstays like Kentucky struggling more than usual. In its last game, Arkansas got whacked by Tennessee, which then went on to fall to those aforementioned Wildcats in the SEC championship game. The Razorbacks feature a porous defense that will have its hands full with Butlers' strong guard play. Arkansas was also a much better home team this year than it was a traveler winning 15 of its 23 games on its home floor. This is the time of year when many bettors are looking at college basketball for the first time this season and when they see a higher seed taking back a price, it going to look appealing. However, oddsmakers got it right when they make the Bulldogs the chalk but they’re still being sold short. 

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