Murray State vs West Virginia
Murray State +10½ -102 over West Virginia

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Posted at 9:00 AM EST.

First Round of NCAA Tournament - Viejas Arena - San Diego, California

4:00 PM EST. West Virginia thrives on being one of the hardest teams in the country to play against because of coach Bob Huggins' famed "Press Virginia" defense. The Mountaineers are mainstays in the market but were a very streaky crew this year. At its high point WVU was ranked #2 in the nation, but as its stock hit its peak, the Mountaineers crashed losing five of six. Huggins’ signature full-court pressure allowed West Virginia to finish second in the nation in defensive turnover percentage, but turnovers are a luck based statistic that cannot be counted on game-to-game. Also, that up tempo defense leaves the Mountaineers vulnerable to a strong counterattack against teams that can shoot the lights out and make their fouls shots. That's what puts this #5 versus #12 matchup so high on our upset radar.

Over the past 16 NCAA Tournaments, there have been 27 instances of a 12 seed upsetting a 5 seed, meaning the 12 seed wins at a clip of 42.19% in that span. Only twice in the past 16 seasons has there been a Big Dance without a 12/5 upset. With that, we welcome the Racers of Murray State to the national stage. The Racers were champions of the Ohio Valley Conference losing just two games in the OVC. Murray State is led by guard Jonathan Stark, who has legit NBA talent. Stark transferred from Tulane and was named OVC player of the year after putting up 21.8 Points Per Game. He is the only active player in the country with more than 2,200 points and 550 assists in his college career. Murray State makes its opponents grind out long possessions on defense and holds its opposition to just over a 30% clip from three, which is the 10th lowest 3-point percentage in all of Division I hoops. If West Virginia is susceptible anywhere on D, it's the three-point line, where the Mountaineers are giving up 37% shooting to its opponents. If it's a lower-scoring, slower-tempo game, one in which West Virginia finds itself trading twos for threes, this one will likely be scary close. Given the style elements at play and Murray State's current 13-game winning streak, the dog is being offered a generous amount of points here and that great equalizer tilts the game in our favor. 

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Our Pick

Murray State +10½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)