Charleston vs Auburn
Coll Charleston +9 -103 over Auburn

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Posted at 9:00 AM EST.

First Round of NCAA Tournament - Viejas Arena -San Diego, California

7:27 PM EST. The Auburn Tigers weren't expected to do well before the season began, as they were picked to finish ninth in the SEC Preseason Media Poll. That was before an FBI scandal rocked the program as two of their top four leading scorers from last year were suspended for the season. Still, the team had overcome the odds and had the inside track to a top-two seed when they faced the South Carolina Gamecocks in the middle of February while boasting a 23-3 record. Unfortunately, their primary rim protector in Anfernee McLemore -- who was leading the team at the time with 2.7 blocks per game and an excellent 92.8 defensive efficiency rating -- suffered a gruesome season-ending injury. The Tigers went on to lose that game against the Gamecocks and went 2-3 after it. While winning just two out of their final six games isn't solely a product of the loss of McLemore, it was a big blow for a team with already such thin depth after the preseason suspensions. This team is vulnerable as can be. In the SEC tournament, the Tigers were upset by rival Alabama 81-63, and while one could chalk that poor performance up to the loss of McLemore, Auburn had a 10-point lead at halftime which makes that 18-point margin of defeat much worse than it actually looks. The Tigers don't appear to have any reliable scorers at the moment, as Mustapha Heron, who averaged a team-best 16.6 Points Per Game this season has shot just 7-of-24 his last two games. Second-leading scorer Bryce Brown has been held well below his season average of 16.2 PPG in three of his last four games. If the already depleted Tigers can't trust their top scorers, they're not going to make it out of the opening weekend.

Enter the Cougars of Charleston. It hasn't been an easy year for Head Coach Earl Grant, as he saw one-time Cougars player Canyon Barry transfer to Florida before last season, but the head coach has since managed to hold on to the rest of his talented roster. As a result, all five starters returned from a team that went 14-4 in the Colonial Athletic Association last season and won a one-point game on the home floor of eventual CAA champion UNC Wilmington. Joe Chealey brings opposing defenses to their knees by drawing six fouls per 40 minutes and shooting 83 percent at the line. Grant Riller, off a highly promising freshman campaign, had a great sophomore year. Jarrell Brantley is a workhorse on the defensive glass. And the Cougars, as a team, take outstanding care of the ball. Charleston did a number of things well this season including putting the biscuit in the basket. That three-headed monster that includes Riller, Brantley and Chealey averaged nearly 55 points a game as a unit. Riller in particular is heating up after 20 or more points in eight of his last 10 games. Brantley not only puts up double-digit points (17), but he's been more dominant than usual on the boards grabbing 10 or more in four straight entering the NCAA's. This is a team that has the qualities of a bracket-buster and we’re not going to allow yesterday’s lopsided results, that heavily favored the chalk, deter us from taking back more points than we should be offered.  

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Our Pick

Coll Charleston +9 -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)