New Mexico St vs Clemson
New Mexico St +5 -106 over Clemson

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Posted at 9:00 AM EST.

First Round of NCAA Tournament - Viejas Arena - San Diego, California

10:00 PM EST. Clemson seemed likely to be an upset target before the bracket was released due to the attention given to senior star Donte Grantham's season-ending injury. The Tigers are just 7-6 without Grantham, though they did beat North Carolina in late January in his absence. Auburn finished fifth in the ACC and was sent packing in the conference tournament by Virginia. Despite all of the turmoil to end their season, the Tigers are back in the Big Dance for the first time in seven seasons. The invitation was surely appreciated, but Clemson couldn't have been too excited to see 28-5 New Mexico State as its first-round opponent. Both teams are ranked inside KenPom's top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency. Clemson's offense is barely top 50, though (they're 48th in adjusted offensive rating). All signs indicate this being a slow, defensive-minded game,. Given that low-scoring games are often the breeding grounds for higher variability and greater chances of upsets, this could be one to watch.

The New Mexico State Aggies represent the Western Athletic Conference and drew the 12 seed in the Midwest region. The Aggies bested both the Davidson Wildcats and Miami Hurricanes on a neutral court back in December, so they have some solid wins on their resume. New Mexico State also went down to the wire with USC and beat Illinois, both are Power Five schools. In addition, New Mexico State is one of the best defensive teams in the country ranking fifth nationally in opposing field goal percentage and grab defensive rebounds at the 14th-highest rate. The Aggies could make life miserable for a Tigers side that likes to get up-and-down. They have held opponents to just 9.2 assists per game, which is the third-smallest number in college hoops. This is a dangerous game for Clemson, as the Aggies are not going to be intimidated. They are confident and capable. The upset is on the table, and we're not going to pass up taking back this sweet price. Aggies outright is the call.

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Our Pick

New Mexico St +5 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)