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Posted Wednesday at 6:00 PM EST.

Second Round of NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament - Intrust Bank Arena - Wichita, Kansas

7:20 PM EST. San Diego State is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won nine in a row -- highlighted by a drubbing of a good Nevada team en route to winning the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The #7 Wolf Pack still picked up a 7-seed in the Big Dance, but that wasn't the only quality win the Aztecs had this season. SDSU also had a huge W over #8 Gonzaga back in December. The Aztecs mirror the Cougars in many ways right from the resurrection of a shamed legendary coach to the way they play on the court by double-teaming in the post and forcing ball screens down the sidelines. Former coach Steve Fisher put SDSU on the map after leaving Michigan amid scandal, but he retired last season handing the reigns over to Brian Dutcher. There was little worry the Aztecs would miss a beat, as Dutcher was there for all of Fishers' 18-seasons. This year's team is once again built on a smothering defense backed up by a pair of 6'10 bigs in Malik Pope and Jalen McDaniels. However, the offense has picked up and really come to life as of late. SDSU has scored 79 or more points in five of its last nine games.

The Aztecs' foe, Houston, has also been on a tear, winning 10 of its last 11 games entering the American Athletic Conference Tournament's championship game, where they came up just one point short against Cincinnati, who is a 2 seed. While that game came down to the final seconds, neither side shot the ball well, especially the Cougs who went just 34.5% from the field. Houston is a sexy pick to go on a deep run in this tournament, but you are often going to pay a premium to back a ranked team when they face unranked competition. The Cougars 26-7 record is going to turn some heads in the market, but much of that legwork was done against a weak non-conference schedule that ranks 254th in the nation as per KenPom. When the Aztecs were battling the 'Zags, the Cougs were locking up with Prairie View A & M and Fairfield.

No one's likely to feel confident betting against either of these teams given their recent play, but the value in this matchup seems to lie with San Diego State. The teams’ ratings are so close based on offense, defense and strength of schedule that spotting points in a 50/50 proposition is bad strategy. While Houston's been one of the more well-rounded teams in the country of late, SDSU has been too but only gets a fraction of the recognition. This is a game the Aztecs can win outright, and so we're going for the kill.

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